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Showing posts with label february 15. Show all posts
Showing posts with label february 15. Show all posts

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Asteroid 2012 DA14. Historical Event. Passing Within Geosynchronous Ring.


Asteroid to pass close by Earth on Friday


* Nearest approach at 2:24 p.m. EST/1924 GMT on Friday
* No chance of impact, scientists say
* Encounter will cause asteroid's orbit to change
By Irene Klotz
BOSTON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - A newly discovered asteroid about half the size of a football field will pass nearer to Earth than any other known object of its size on Friday, giving scientists a rare opportunity for close-up observations without launching a probe.

Location of asteroid
At its closest approach, which will occur at 2:24 p.m. EST/1924 GMT, the asteroid will pass about 17,200 miles (27,520 km) above the planet traveling at 8 miles (13 km) per second, bringing it nearer than the networks of television and weather satellites that ring the planet.
Although Asteroid 2012 DA14 is the largest known object of its size to pass this close, scientists say there is no chance of an impact, this week or in the foreseeable future.
Currently, DA14 matches Earth's year-long orbit around the sun, but after Friday's encounter its flight path will change, said astronomer Donald Yeomans, with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
"The close approach will perturb its orbit so that actually instead of having an orbital period of one year, it'll lose a couple of months," Yeomans said. "The Earth is going to put this one in an orbit that is considerably safer," he said.
The non-profit Space Data Association, which tracks satellites for potential collisions, analyzed the asteroid's projected path and determined no spacecraft would be in its way.
"There is no reason to believe that this asteroid poses a threat to any satellites in Earth orbit," Space Data operations manager T.S. Kelso said in a statement.
read more at THIS LINK


FROM NASA
IMAGES 

Graphic depicts the trajectory of asteroid 2012 DA14Graphic depicts the trajectory of asteroid 2012 DA14 on Feb 15, 2013. In this view, we are looking down from above Earth's north pole. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
› Larger view

Graphic depicts the trajectory of asteroid 2012 DA14Graphic depicts the trajectory of asteroid 2012 DA14 during its close approach, as seen edge-on to Earth's equatorial plane. The graphic demonstrates why the asteroid is invisible to northern hemisphere observers until just before close approach: it is approaching from "underneath" our planet. On the other hand, after close approach it will be favorably placed for observers in the northern hemisphere. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
› Larger view


FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS 

Q: What is asteroid DA14
 A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is a small near-Earth object – approximately 150 feet (45 meters) in diameter. On Feb. 15, 2013, the asteroid will pass by our planet at a remarkably close distance, but the asteroid’s path is understood well enough that there is no chance of a collision with the Earth.


Q: What date and what time will the asteroid be closest to Earth?
 A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 will be closest to Earth on Feb. 15 at approximately 19:24 UTC (2:24 p.m. EST/11:24 a.m. PST). This time may change by a minute or two as the asteroid is tracked on its approach and predictions are refined.

At the time of closest approach, the asteroid will be over the eastern Indian Ocean, off Sumatra -- approx. latitude: -6 deg South. / longitude: 97.5 deg East.


Q: How far away will asteroid 2012 DA14 be at time of closest approach?
 A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 will be only about 17,200 miles (27,700 kilometers) above Earth's surface at the time of closest approach on Feb 15, 2013. This distance is well outside Earth's atmosphere, but it is inside the belt of satellites in geostationary orbit, which is located 22,200 miles (35,800 kilometers) above Earth’s surface. The close-approach distance is only about one-tenth the distance between Earth and moon. Another way to express the distance between asteroid and Earth at time of closest approach is 4.4 Earth radii from Earth’s surface – or about twice the diameter of the Earth.


Q: Could asteroid DA14 impact Earth?
 A: No. The orbit of asteroid 2012 DA14 is well understood – it will not come any closer than 17,150 miles (27,650 kilometers) above Earth's surface during its flyby on Feb 15, 2013.

The asteroid’s orbit around the sun is roughly similar to that of Earth, and it makes relatively close approaches to our planet’s orbit twice per orbit. But, the 2013 flyby is by far the closest the asteroid will approach our planet for many decades. The next notable close approach to Earth will be on February 15, 2046, when the asteroid will pass no closer than 620,000 miles (1,000,000 kilometers) from the center-point of Earth.

While this is the closest possible distance based on observations and calculations as of February 4, 2013, future observations will refine the calculation and may increase the minimum distance of the flyby. As of Feb 9, 2013, the minimum distance is now 1.6 million km or 995,000 miles from the center of Earth. For the most current calculations for this asteroid, visit: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20DA14;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1;rad=0#cad


Q: What makes 2012 DA14 special?
 A: The flyby of asteroid 2012 DA14 is the closest ever predicted Earth approach for an object this large.


Q: How long will asteroid 2012 DA14 be within the Earth/moon system?
 A: Asteroid 2012 DA14's will be within the Earth/moon system for about 33 hours. Its orbit will bring it within the Earth/moon system (approach within one lunar distance, 237,000 miles of the Earth) on Feb. 15 at about 0300 UTC (7 p.m. PST on Thursday, Feb. 14). The asteroid will exit the Earth/moon system on Feb. 16 at about 1200 UTC (4 a.m. PST).


Q: Is there a chance that asteroid 2012 DA14 could be eclipsed by Earth?
 A: Because of its trajectory, there is no chance that asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass through Earth’s shadow.


Q: How big is asteroid 2012 DA14?
 A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is currently estimated to be about 150 feet (45 meters) across and has an estimated mass of about 130,000 metric tons. If radar observations of this asteroid are successful, we might have a more accurate estimate of the asteroid’s size after its close approach.


Q: How fast will the asteroid be traveling at closest approach?
 A: Asteroid 2012 DA 14 is traveling at about 17,450 miles per hour (28,100 kilometers per hour), or 4.8 miles per second (7.82 kilometers per second) relative to Earth.


Q: Who discovered asteroid DA14?
 A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 was discovered by the La Sagra Sky Survey operated by the Astronomical Observatory of Mallorca in Spain on Feb. 23, 2012. The asteroid was about 2.7 million miles (4.3 million kilometers) distant when it was detected. Their observations were reported to the NASA funded Minor Planet Center, operated by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory for the International Astronomical Union, where all observations from observatories worldwide are combined to maintain the database on all known asteroids and comets in our solar system.


Q: How many asteroids are out there similar in size to asteroid DA14?
 A: Scientists believe there are approximately 500,000 near-Earth asteroids the size of 2012 DA14. Of those, less than one percent have been discovered.


Q: How many times do asteroids the size of DA14 fly this close?
 A: Scientists at NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office in Pasadena, Calif. estimate that an asteroid the size of 2012 DA14 flies this close every 40 years on average and that one will impact Earth, on average, about once in every 1,200 years.


Q: Is there a chance that asteroid DA14 will collide with one or more satellites?
 A: There is very little chance that asteroid 2012 DA14 will impact a satellite or spacecraft. Because the asteroid is approaching from below Earth, it will pass between the outer constellation of satellites located in geosynchronous orbit (22,245 miles/35,800 kilometers) and the large concentration of satellites orbiting much closer to Earth. (The International Space Station, for example, orbits at the close-in altitude of 240 miles/386 kilometers.). There are almost no satellites orbiting at the distance at which the asteroid will pass.


Q: What will asteroid DA14’s close pass do to Earth’s rotation/tides/fault lines/etc.
 A: The gravitational influence upon Earth and its inhabitants by the flyby of asteroid 2012 DA14 will be infinitesimally small.


Q: What would happen if DA14 were to impact Earth?
 A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 will not impact Earth, but if another asteroid of a size similar to that of 2012 DA14 (about 150 feet across) were to impact Earth, it would release approximately 2.5 megatons of energy in the atmosphere and would be expected to cause regional devastation.

A comparison to the impact potential of an asteroid the size of 2012 DA14 could be made to the impact of a near-Earth object that occurred in 1908 in Tuguska, Siberia. Known in the asteroid community as the "Tunguska Event," this impact of an asteroid just slightly smaller than 2012 DA14 (approximately 100 – 130 feet/30-40 meters across) is believed to have flattened about 825 square miles (2200 square kilometers) of forest in and around the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in what is now Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia.


Q: Can I see the asteroid during its close approach?
 A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is small, so even though it will make a close flyby of Earth, the asteroid's apparent magnitude is expected to peak at about only 7.4 – too dim to be viewed by the naked eye. To view the asteroid, you will need a good pair of binoculars, or even better, a moderately powered telescope.

During the closest approach, and dependant on local weather, the asteroid will be visible from parts of Europe, Africa and Asia. The asteroid will appear to be moving relatively quickly as it crosses the sky from the south to the north.


Q: What is NASA doing about asteroid 2012 DA14?
 A: As there is no chance of impact, there is nothing that needs to be done about the asteroid. However, the flyby of 2012 DA14 is a great opportunity for science. NASA's Goldstone Solar System Radar, located in California's Mojave Desert, will observe the asteroid on Feb. 16, 18, 19 and 20. Due to the asteroid's small size, the radar images generated are expected to be no more than a few pixels across. It will also be observed by numerous optical observatories worldwide to attempt to determine its spin rate and composition.

Friday, January 11, 2013

Earth Directed Solar Flares. Asteroid DA14...Watch Out. Solar Maximum.


INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR1654 is growing more active. It is now crackling with M-class solar flares, such as this one recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory this morning at 09:11 UT:


AR1654 is getting bigger as it turns toward Earth: movie. Not only is the chance of flares increasing, but also the chance of an Earth-directed eruption.This could be the sunspot that breaks the recent lengthy spell of calm space weather around our planet

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 
1508 UT Jan11 
24-hr: M1 
0911 UT Jan11 
explanation | more dataUpdated: Today at: 2000 UT


Daily Sun: 11 Jan 13

Sunspots AR1652 and AR1654 have beta-gamma magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

SPACE WEATHERNOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2013 Jan 10 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
50 %
50 %
CLASS X
05 %
05 %

Asteroid 2012 DA14 to sweep close on February 15, 2013

It’ll pass within the moon’s distance from Earth – closer than the orbits of geosynchronous satellites. But it won’t strike us in 2013.

A near-Earth asteroid – called 2012 DA14 by astronomers – will pass very close to Earth on February 15, 2013. Astronomers estimate that, when it’s closest to us, it’ll be within the orbit of the moon (which is about 240,000 miles away), and within the orbits of geosynchronous satellites (about 26,000 miles up). 2012 DA14 will be about 21,000 miles (35,000 kilometers) away. It will not strike Earth in 2013. Astronomers’ calculations of asteroid orbits can be trusted. After all, even decades ago, they knew enough about calculating orbits to send people to the moon and bring them safely back, and today we are able place our space vehicles in orbit around objects as small as asteroids.
So, no, 2012 DA14 won’t strike us in 2013. There was a remote possibility it might strike us in 2020, but that possibility has been ruled out also.

Asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass closest on February 15, 2013. As the image above shows, it will pass much closer than the orbit of the moon - closer even that orbiting geosynchronous satellites (22,000 miles). View larger. Image Credit: NASA
What will happen when Asteroid 2012 DA14 passes closely in 2013?
What will happen when it passes us? The short answer is … nothing. On the day it passes, most of us won’t see it or be aware of its passage, in any way. The asteroid won’t alter the tides. It won’t cause volcanoes. It’ll just sweep closely past us – as millions of asteroids have done throughout Earth’s four-and-a-half-billion-year history – some in your own lifetime.
The asteroid will be within range for small telescopes and solidly mounted binoculars, used by experienced observers who have access to appropriate stars charts. Here’s what NASA says about its visibility:
On [February 15, 2013], the asteroid will travel rapidly from the southern evening sky into the northern morning sky with its closest Earth approach occurring about 19:26 UTC when it will achieve a magnitude of less than seven, which is somewhat fainter than naked eye visibility. About 4 minutes after its Earth close approach, there is a good chance it will pass into the Earth’s shadow for about 18 minutes or so before reappearing from the eclipse. When traveling rapidly into the northern morning sky, 2012 DA14 will quickly fade in brightness.
What do we know about asteroid 2012 DA14?
Asteroid 2012 DA14 is a little guy, compared to some asteroids, although its size has not been pinned down precisely. It is thought to be about 45 meters across (nearly 150 feet across), with an estimated mass of about 130,000 metric tons.
If a space object 150 feet wide were to strike our planet, it wouldn’t be Earth-destroying. But it has been estimated that it would produce the equivalent of 2.4 megatons of TNT. How does that compare with other known impact events on Earth? In 1908, in a remote part of Russia, an explosion killed reindeer and flattened trees. But no crater was ever found. Scientists now believe a small comet struck Earth. That event has been estimated at 3 to 20 megatons. So 2012 DA14 is in the same approximate realm as the Tunguska comet (which, actually, might have been an asteroid instead). It would not destroy Earth, but it could flatten a city.
Of course, about 70% of our world is covered by oceans. That means the most likely landing spot of any incoming asteroid is in the water – not on a city or other populated area.
Astronomers at the Observatorio Astronómico de La Sagra in Spain discovered 2012 DA14 in early 2012. We know 2012 DA14′s orbit is similar to that of Earth. That is one reason the asteroid eluded astronomers until recently. You can be sure that many astronomers are carefully tracking 2012 DA14 now.
The orbit of 2012 DA14 is an inclined ellipse. In other words, it’s tilted sightly with respect to Earth’s orbit around the sun, and, like Earth’s orbit, it’s not circular but elliptical – like a circle that someone sat down on. According to Bad Astronomer Phil Plait, who appears to have used a computer program to look at its orbit:
The asteroid spends most of its time well away from our planet. However, the path of the rock does bring it somewhat close to the Earth twice per orbit, or about every six months. The last time it passed us was on February 16 [2012], when it was about 2.5 million km (1.5 million miles) away, equal to about 6 times the distance to the moon. That’s usually about the scale of these encounters — it misses us by quite a margin.
If we know it will miss us in 2013 and in 2020, why are astronomers still watching? In fact, the orbit of 2012 DA14 is not entirely pinned down, although it is known well enough to say for sure: it will not hit us next year, or in 2020.
But it will come close on February 15, 2013! It should be close enough to catch the attention of virtually everyone on Earth in February 2013, on what’s sure to be a media field day.
Will 2012 DA14 strike Earth in 2020?
No. In March 2012, when a collision between 2012 DA14 and Earth in 2020 was still remotely possible, I asked astronomer Donald Yeomans to clarify the risk. Yeomans is, among other things, manager of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In March 2012, he told EarthSky that a 2020 collision between Earth and asteroid 2012 DA14 was …
… approximately one chance in 83,000, with additional remote possibilities beyond 2020. However, by far the most likely scenario is that additional observations, especially in 2013, will allow a dramatic reduction in the orbit uncertainties and the complete elimination of the 2020 impact possibility.
It turned out they didn’t have to wait until 2013. By May, 2012, astronomers had ruled out even the remote possibility of a 2020 collision.
Still, 2012 DA14 and asteroids like it are sobering.
Bottom line: The near Earth asteroid 2012 DA14 will have a very close pass near Earth on February 15, 2013. It will sweep approximately 21,000 miles from us – much closer than the moon’s orbit and closer than geosynchronous satellites. It will not strike Earth. Its orbit around the sun can bring it no closer to the Earth’s surface on February 15, 2013 than 3.2 Earth radii.



Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate

The March Towards Max

The March Towards Max
These six images from SDO, chosen to show a representative image about every six months, track the rising level of solar activity since the mission first began to produce consistent images in May, 2010. The period of solar maximum is expected in 2013. The images were taken in the 171 Angstrom wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light.

Sun-Climate (tsi, strip)
Space-borne measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) show ~0.1 percent variations with solar activity on 11-year and shorter timescales. These data have been corrected for calibration offsets between the various instruments used to measure TSI. SOURCE: Courtesy of Greg Kopp, University of Colorado.


Sun-Climate (pacific anomaly, strip)
Composite averages for December-January-February for peak solar years. SOURCE: G.A. Meehl, J.M. Arblaster, K. Matthes, F. Sassi, and H. van Loon, Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11 year solar cycle forcing, Science 325:1114-1118, 2009; reprinted with permission from AAAS.


Sun-Climate (sunspot numbers, strip)
The yearly averaged sunspot number for a period of 400 years (1610-2010). SOURCE: Courtesy of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.