Russia Gets Hit By Meteorite. Is This a Piece of Asteroid 2012 DA14 Coming to the Sky Near You Today?

• Moment meteorite exploded in the sky above Russian town as doctors treat 950 people injured when sonic boom shattered windows


• Large object flashed across the sky at 9.20am local time 
• Pictures show a streak of smoke followed by several bright blasts of flames
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• 82 of the injured are children and two are in intensive care
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• Landed in a lake near Chebarkul, a neighbouring town 
• 6,000 square feet of a roof at a zinc factory collapsed 
• One local said it 'was like a scene from the Armageddon movie'
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• Same day as Asteroid 2012 DA14, which is due to skim Earth's orbit tonight




• The city of Chelyabinsk, 900 miles east of Moscow and close to the Kazakhstan border, took the brunt of the super sonic impact.







Spectacular sky: The Urals region was struck by falling meteorite fragments which fell in the city of Chelyabinsk, 900 miles east of Moscow and close to the Kazakhstan border







• Tim O'Brien, associate director of the University of Manchester's Jodrell Bank Observatory, said the injuries were caused when the meteor created a sonic boom.   'This reasonably large chunk of rock was moving faster than the speed of sound, maybe 20,000 miles per hour. It made a sonic boom in the atmosphere, and that hit buildings and shattered windows. That is what seems to have caused the injuries,' he explained. 


• A six metre wide hole was found in the ground close to Lake Chebarkul, said Russian military sources cited by RIA Novosti news agency. 


• Earlier it was thought the main body of the meteorite had hit the lake.  'The meteorite that passed over the Chelyabinsk region fell into a body of water 1km from the city of Chebarkul,' said a statement posted on the website of Chelyabinsk governor, Mikhail Yurevich.


• According to an unconfirmed report in Russia Today, the meteorite was intercepted by Russian air defense.


• The strike came on the same day that Asteroid 2012 DA14 is due to skim the orbit of the Earth tonight.  But astronomers say that it is probably just a coincidence -  Dr Robert Massey of the Royal Astronomical Society told MailOnline: 'As I understand it, the Russian meteorite(s) were travelling from east to west whereas 2012 DA14 will be travelling from north to south.'


• Pictures show a streak of smoke followed by several bright blasts of flames and eyewitnesses spoke of several devastating explosions.


• Mobile phones are only working intermittently and there were localised power cuts.


• According to RT.com, the Urals regional centre of the Emergency Ministry claimed it sent out a mass text message warning residents about a possible meteorite shower.  But eyewitnesses said they either never received it, or got the message after the explosion had already occurred.


Fear: First reports suggested that there had been a plane crash but officials confirmed it was one or more meteorites falling to Earth


Wounded: This woman suffered cuts across her face when the sonic boom of the meteor sent broken glass flying



The emergencies ministry said that 10,000 rescue workers had been dispatched to help the injured and locate those needing help.




• All schools and kindergartens were closed in Chelyabinsk region today.

Damaged: A zinc factory in Chelyabinsk was seen with a partially collapsed roof and walls in the morning after meteor pieces rained on the town

Moment of impact: A pair, seen on CCTV, cower from the impact as the window near them explodes

• The Russian Academy of Sciences is estimating the meteor weighed about 10 tons. 

• The academy said in a statement hours fall that the meteor entered the Earth's atmosphere at a speed of at least 54,000 kph (33,000 mph) and shattered about 30-50 kilometres (18-32 miles) above ground.

• One eyewitness Gulnara Dudka, in her 20s, gave a dramatic account of the meteorite, telling how she feared 'doomsday' had arrived, reported the Siberian Times.

• Residents in one 19 storey block reported feeling the shockwaves of the explosions.

• The sounds of car alarms and breaking windows could be heard in the area, said a witness, and there were reports that the internet and mobile networks were temporarily down.

• The meteorite flew across the Russian sky from the direction of Kazakhstan, its trajectory going over southern Siberia, above the Tyumen, Kurgan and Sverdlovsk regions, said the head of the Urals regional branch of the Emergencies Ministry press service, Vadim Grebennikov.

• Officials stressed that radiation levels remained normal amid fears that one of dozens of nuclear facilities in the region could have been hit. 

Ruined: The sounds of car alarms and breaking windows could be heard in the area, said a witness, and there were reports that the internet and mobile networks were temporarily down

• Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the nationalist leader noted for vehement statements, said 'It's not meteors falling, it's the test of a new weapon by the Americans,' the RIA Novosti news agency reported. 'At the moment we are checking the territories and counting how many towns and settlements suffered from it.  'Preliminary information says the meteorite did not fall down but exploded in the air. '

Destroyed: The building of the local zinc plant badly damaged by a shockwave from a meteorite impact

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2279020/Russian-meteorite-Moment-meteorite-exploded-doctors-treat-500-people-injured.html#ixzz2KzNUsU5a
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• The site of Friday's spectacular show is about 5,000 kilometers (3,000 miles) west of Tunguska, which 1908 was the site of the largest recorded explosion of a space object plunging to Earth. That blast, attributed to a comet or asteroid fragment, is generally estimated to have been about 10 megatons; it leveled some 80 million trees.

• Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said the incident showed the need for leading world powers to develop a system to intercept objects falling from space.  "At the moment, neither we nor the Americans have such technologies" to shoot down meteors or asteroids, he said, according to the Interfax news agency.

• Small pieces of space debris — usually parts of comets or asteroids — that are on a collision course with the Earth are called meteoroids. They become meteors when they enter the Earth'satmosphere. Most meteors burn up in the atmosphere, but if they survive the frictional heating and strike the surface of the Earth they are called meteorites.  Meteors typically cause sizeable sonic booms when they enter the atmosphere because they are traveling much faster than the speed of sound. Injuries on the scale reported Friday, however, are extraordinarily rare.

read more at http://www.newsday.com/news/world/russian-meteor-shower-causes-blasts-injures-hundreds-1.4652395

for the following video... Published on Feb 15, 2013 Multiple meteors touched down in Central Russia in Ural region February 15th. These meteors caused injury from shattered windows, and broken class. It is believed these meteors broke off from the larger meteor 2012-Da14, which missed the earth by less than 30,000 miles the same day. Had Da-14 stuck earth, it would have destroyed everything within a 10 mile radius much like a nuclear bomb. In this video we see a building getting damaged.
for the following video... At 7:17 AM on the morning of June 30, 1908, a mysterious explosion occurred in the skies over Siberia. It was caused by the impact and breakup of a large meteorite, at an altitude roughly six kilometers in the atmosphere. Realistic pictures of the event are unavailable. However, Russian scientists collected eyewitness accounts of the event. I believe that we now know enough about large impacts to "decode" the subjective descriptions of the witnesses and create realistic views of this historic asteroid impact as seen from different distances.

Russia is no stranger to this type of event. A huge event happened in 1908 called the Tunguska Event.

Earth Directed Solar Flares. Asteroid DA14...Watch Out. Solar Maximum.

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR1654 is growing more active. It is now crackling with M-class solar flares, such as this one recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory this morning at 09:11 UT:

AR1654 is getting bigger as it turns toward Earth: movie. Not only is the chance of flares increasing, but also the chance of an Earth-directed eruption.This could be the sunspot that breaks the recent lengthy spell of calm space weather around our planet

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 1508 UT Jan11 
24-hr: M1 0911 UT Jan11 
explanation | more dataUpdated: Today at: 2000 UT

Daily Sun: 11 Jan 13

Sunspots AR1652 and AR1654 have beta-gamma magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

SPACE WEATHERNOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2013 Jan 10 2200 UTC

FLARE	0-24 hr	24-48 hr
CLASS M	50 %	50 %
CLASS X	05 %	05 %

http://spaceweather.com/

Asteroid 2012 DA14 to sweep close on February 15, 2013

Asteroid 2012 DA14 on February 15, 2012

It’ll pass within the moon’s distance from Earth – closer than the orbits of geosynchronous satellites. But it won’t strike us in 2013.

A near-Earth asteroid – called 2012 DA14 by astronomers – will pass very close to Earth on February 15, 2013. Astronomers estimate that, when it’s closest to us, it’ll be within the orbit of the moon (which is about 240,000 miles away), and within the orbits of geosynchronous satellites (about 26,000 miles up). 2012 DA14 will be about 21,000 miles (35,000 kilometers) away. It will not strike Earth in 2013. Astronomers’ calculations of asteroid orbits can be trusted. After all, even decades ago, they knew enough about calculating orbits to send people to the moon and bring them safely back, and today we are able place our space vehicles in orbit around objects as small as asteroids.

So, no, 2012 DA14 won’t strike us in 2013. There was a remote possibility it might strike us in 2020, but that possibility has been ruled out also.

Asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass closest on February 15, 2013. As the image above shows, it will pass much closer than the orbit of the moon - closer even that orbiting geosynchronous satellites (22,000 miles). View larger. Image Credit: NASA

What will happen when Asteroid 2012 DA14 passes closely in 2013?

What will happen when it passes us? The short answer is … nothing. On the day it passes, most of us won’t see it or be aware of its passage, in any way. The asteroid won’t alter the tides. It won’t cause volcanoes. It’ll just sweep closely past us – as millions of asteroids have done throughout Earth’s four-and-a-half-billion-year history – some in your own lifetime.

The asteroid will be within range for small telescopes and solidly mounted binoculars, used by experienced observers who have access to appropriate stars charts. Here’s what NASA says about its visibility:

On [February 15, 2013], the asteroid will travel rapidly from the southern evening sky into the northern morning sky with its closest Earth approach occurring about 19:26 UTC when it will achieve a magnitude of less than seven, which is somewhat fainter than naked eye visibility. About 4 minutes after its Earth close approach, there is a good chance it will pass into the Earth’s shadow for about 18 minutes or so before reappearing from the eclipse. When traveling rapidly into the northern morning sky, 2012 DA14 will quickly fade in brightness.

What do we know about asteroid 2012 DA14?

Asteroid 2012 DA14 is a little guy, compared to some asteroids, although its size has not been pinned down precisely. It is thought to be about 45 meters across (nearly 150 feet across), with an estimated mass of about 130,000 metric tons.

If a space object 150 feet wide were to strike our planet, it wouldn’t be Earth-destroying. But it has been estimated that it would produce the equivalent of 2.4 megatons of TNT. How does that compare with other known impact events on Earth? In 1908, in a remote part of Russia, an explosion killed reindeer and flattened trees. But no crater was ever found. Scientists now believe a small comet struck Earth. That event has been estimated at 3 to 20 megatons. So 2012 DA14 is in the same approximate realm as the Tunguska comet (which, actually, might have been an asteroid instead). It would not destroy Earth, but it could flatten a city.

Of course, about 70% of our world is covered by oceans. That means the most likely landing spot of any incoming asteroid is in the water – not on a city or other populated area.

Astronomers at the Observatorio Astronómico de La Sagra in Spain discovered 2012 DA14 in early 2012. We know 2012 DA14′s orbit is similar to that of Earth. That is one reason the asteroid eluded astronomers until recently. You can be sure that many astronomers are carefully tracking 2012 DA14 now.

The orbit of 2012 DA14 is an inclined ellipse. In other words, it’s tilted sightly with respect to Earth’s orbit around the sun, and, like Earth’s orbit, it’s not circular but elliptical – like a circle that someone sat down on. According to Bad Astronomer Phil Plait, who appears to have used a computer program to look at its orbit:

The asteroid spends most of its time well away from our planet. However, the path of the rock does bring it somewhat close to the Earth twice per orbit, or about every six months. The last time it passed us was on February 16 [2012], when it was about 2.5 million km (1.5 million miles) away, equal to about 6 times the distance to the moon. That’s usually about the scale of these encounters — it misses us by quite a margin.

If we know it will miss us in 2013 and in 2020, why are astronomers still watching? In fact, the orbit of 2012 DA14 is not entirely pinned down, although it is known well enough to say for sure: it will not hit us next year, or in 2020.

But it will come close on February 15, 2013! It should be close enough to catch the attention of virtually everyone on Earth in February 2013, on what’s sure to be a media field day.

Will 2012 DA14 strike Earth in 2020?

No. In March 2012, when a collision between 2012 DA14 and Earth in 2020 was still remotely possible, I asked astronomer Donald Yeomans to clarify the risk. Yeomans is, among other things, manager of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In March 2012, he told EarthSky that a 2020 collision between Earth and asteroid 2012 DA14 was …

… approximately one chance in 83,000, with additional remote possibilities beyond 2020. However, by far the most likely scenario is that additional observations, especially in 2013, will allow a dramatic reduction in the orbit uncertainties and the complete elimination of the 2020 impact possibility.

It turned out they didn’t have to wait until 2013. By May, 2012, astronomers had ruled out even the remote possibility of a 2020 collision.

Still, 2012 DA14 and asteroids like it are sobering.

Bottom line: The near Earth asteroid 2012 DA14 will have a very close pass near Earth on February 15, 2013. It will sweep approximately 21,000 miles from us – much closer than the moon’s orbit and closer than geosynchronous satellites. It will not strike Earth. Its orbit around the sun can bring it no closer to the Earth’s surface on February 15, 2013 than 3.2 Earth radii.

Source: http://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-2012-da14-will-pass-very-close-to-earth-in-2013

Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate

The March Towards Max

These six images from SDO, chosen to show a representative image about every six months, track the rising level of solar activity since the mission first began to produce consistent images in May, 2010. The period of solar maximum is expected in 2013. The images were taken in the 171 Angstrom wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light.

Space-borne measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) show ~0.1 percent variations with solar activity on 11-year and shorter timescales. These data have been corrected for calibration offsets between the various instruments used to measure TSI. SOURCE: Courtesy of Greg Kopp, University of Colorado.

Composite averages for December-January-February for peak solar years. SOURCE: G.A. Meehl, J.M. Arblaster, K. Matthes, F. Sassi, and H. van Loon, Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11 year solar cycle forcing, Science 325:1114-1118, 2009; reprinted with permission from AAAS.

The yearly averaged sunspot number for a period of 400 years (1610-2010). SOURCE: Courtesy of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.

read the article at http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/