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Showing posts with label Coronal-hole. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Coronal-hole. Show all posts

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Solar Activity Update 1-14-2012 - Activity Uptick

Be looking at a 30% chance for M-Class solar flares in the next 72 hours.  

CORONAL HOLE: NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring a dark gash in the sun's atmosphere--a coronal hole. It's the dark vertical feature in this extreme UV image taken on Jan. 13th:
Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows the solar wind to escape. This yawning hole is about 120,000 km wide and more than a million km long. Solar wind flowing from its UV-dark abyss will reach Earth on Jan. 16th or 17th, possibly sparking auroras for high-latitude sky watchers.



Friday, August 19, 2011

Solar Update 8-19-2011 Including Solar Flare Activity &Forecast


Solar Blares: Listening to the Sun May Improve Space Weather Forecasts

A new method of tracking the propagation of sound waves in the sun's interior provides advance warning of sunspots

Sunspots emerging on the face of the sunSPOTTING THE SPOTS: Surface (gray) and subsurface (blue) activity before and after the emergence of a sunspot. Above, the emerging sunspot is clearly detectable some 60,000 kilometers below the surface, but the surface itself is calm. About two days later, the activity has risen to the surface.Image: The SOHO/MDI Team, SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA
Peering deep into the sun's churning plasma, solar physicists have discovered a way to forecast the emergence of sunspots before they reach the solar surface.

Sunspots are dark patches marking magnetically active regions that often host solar flares and violent belches called coronal mass ejections. Trimming lead times on sunspot detection would allow for better forecasts of space 
weather—bursts of radiation and charged particles from the sun that can cause real problems on and around Earth. Bad spells of space weather can damage power grids, endanger satellites and aircraft, and pose radiation threats to astronauts in orbit.

A group of Stanford University researchers has found that they can identify the signature of sunspots forming at depths of 60,000 kilometers or so, a full day or two before the sunspots bloom on the surface. The researchers reported their findings in the August 19 issue of Science.

"This is the first time that we have detected sunspots before they appear on the solar disk," says Stathis Ilonidis, a Stanford graduate student who co-authored the new study with physicists Junwei Zhao and Alexander Kosovichev.

Ilonidis and his colleagues plumbed the sun's inner workings with a method called
time–distance helioseismology. Working from archival data from the sun-orbiting SOHO spacecraft, the researchers measured how long it takes sound waves to travel from one point on the solar surface to another, some 100,000 to 200,000 kilometers away, along a refracted, or bent, path through the interior. In four locations where a sunspot was soon to emerge, acoustic waves returned to the solar surface with anomalous rapidity—more than a dozen seconds faster than normal. "At these distances, the travel time [through the sun's interior] is about one hour," Ilonidis says. "If there is a sunspot region along one of these paths, the travel time will be a little bit shorter." The emerging sunspot region seems to boost the local speed of sound, thereby hastening the refracted return of sound waves passing through that part of the solar interior.

The researchers also charted sound waves passing through nine quiet regions of the sun, where no sunspots were developing, and found no significant anomalies in the waves' travel time. By looking for sound waves propagating with anomalous speed, solar physicists going forward might be able to predict where sunspots are going to appear and provide longer lead-time forecasts back on Earth.

But Ilonidis acknowledges that more research is needed to test the predictive power of the new method. "What we need to do in the future is have more statistics, to look at more regions—both regions with sunspots and without sunspots—and check the statistics, whether we have false positives or false negatives," he says. "We need to find what is the success rate with our technique."

The strong signature of sunspots rising from the depths highlights how poorly understood is the sun's inner structure. The emerging sunspots speed up sound waves far more than had been expected; a recent analysis had predicted that sunspot regions would hasten the arrival time of sound waves 
by only one second or thereabouts. But Ilonidis and his colleagues found anomalies of 12 to 16 seconds for sound waves passing through a sunspot region. "That was a big surprise, because it's much higher than what we expected from the current theoretical models," he says.

What is more, the researchers found a sort of sweet spot for their soundings, a depth where the sunspot signal is strongest. But why emerging sunspots should reveal themselves clearly at one depth but not at others is a mystery. "We can detect sunspots at a depth of 60,000 kilometers, but if we try to detect them deeper or closer to the surface, the travel-time shift becomes weaker," Ilonidis says. "We don't understand why, only at a specific depth, the detection of sunspots is easier."

Solar physicist 
Philip Scherrer, who is also based at Stanford, notes that theoretical models of how sunspots appear are relatively successful at describing surficial solar activity but much less true to reality at depth. "So what happens deeper, how the dynamo is really generated from the interplay of rotation and convection and existing fields, isn't really understood," he says. "For all of these things you can tune up a model and make it work for a little while, but some basics are still missing."

Theoretical explanation or no, the new finding may soon afford airlines, satellite operators and other watchers of space weather advance warning of impending solar activity. "It will probably help us to make better forecasts for what the sun is going to do," Scherrer says. "Up until now we've waited until we see the magnetic field erupting."
Today's solar forecast...

Coronal Holes: 19 Aug 11

A solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on Aug. 22-23. Credit: SDO/AIA.

SPACE WEATHERNOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2011 Aug 18 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
45 %
45 %
CLASS X
10 %
10 %

Geomagnetic Storms:Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels:active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2011 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes

0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
10 %
MINOR
01 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
05 %
High latitudes

0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
10 %
MINOR
05 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
http://spaceweather.com/




http://www.solen.info/solar/

Solar Update: Solar Activity has been very low during the past 24 hours with no major flare activity taking place. Sunspot 1271 remains the largest sunspot on the visible solar disk and could still produce C-Class flares and perhaps an M-Class event.
The Visible Solar Disk (Early Friday) - SDO



http://www.solarham.com/

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Solar Activity Update: Coronal Mass Ejection Shoots Almost Directly At Earth

CHANGE OF SEASONS: Today marks the beginning of northern summer. The change of seasons occurs on June 21st at precisely 17:16 UT (1:16 p.m. EDT) when the sun reaches its highest point on the celestial sphere. Because Earth's seasons are reversed in the two hemispheres, today is also the beginning of southern winter. Happy Solstice!
INCOMING: Magnetic fields above sunspot complex 1236 erupted during the early hours of June 21st, producing a C7-class solar flare and a full-halo CME. The expanding cloud appears to be heading almost directly toward Earth:
This does not appear to be an especially powerful CME. Nevertheless, the incoming cloud could trigger polar geomagnetic storms when it reaches Earth on or about June 23rd. The aurora outlook favors southern hemisphere observers, where solstice skies are winter-dark. Stay tuned for updates. Geomagnetic storm alerts:text, voice.

News Release: NASA'S SOLAR DYNAMICS OBSERVATORY DETECTS SUPERFAST SOLAR WAVES MOVING AT 2,000 KM PER SECOND

Sat, 18 Jun 2011
PALO ALTO, Calif., June 15, 2011 - Scientists using the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) instrument on board NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), have detected quasi-periodic waves in the low solar corona that travel at speeds as high as 2,000 kilometers per second (4.5 million miles per hour). These observations provide, for the first time, unambiguous evidence of propagating fast mode magnetosonic waves at such high speeds in the Sun's low atmosphere. Dr. Wei Liu, a Stanford University Research Associate at the Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory (LMSAL) at the company's Advanced Technology Center (ATC) in Palo Alto, presented the findings Wednesday at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, in Las Cruces, N.M. A paper detailing the discovery has been accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.

It is well known that the hot plasma in the solar corona oscillates and produces propagating waves when "kicked" by a flare or eruption, similar to ripples in water produced by dropping a rock into a still pond. Theories and computer models predicted the existence of slow and fast moving waves, and the former were clearly seen by solar observatories in space. However, clues for fast moving waves were seen only briefly in the past during a solar eclipse on the ground, because previous space telescopes could not take pictures rapidly enough to image these fast waves.

"It is the high temporal and spatial resolution of AIA that enables us to see these waves clearly for the first time. AIA takes high sensitivity, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) pictures of the solar corona at spatial scales down to 1100 kilometers, every 12 seconds with 0.1-2 second exposures," said Dr. Liu, who led the analysis of the waves. "In addition, AIA's full Sun field of view at seven simultaneous wavelengths allows us to track them over large spatial and temperature ranges."

The waves are typically successive, arc-shaped fronts of intensity variations, similar to water ripples, which emanate near a flare kernel in the wake of a coronal mass ejection and propagate along a funnel of coronal loops. They have velocities of 1,000–2,000 kilometers per second, periods in the 30–200 seconds range, and wavelengths of 100,000-200,000 kilometers that is equivalent to stacking eight to sixteen Earths atop one another.

"Their characteristic spatial and temporal scales and dispersion relation agree with theoretical expectations of fast mode magnetosonic waves, and are reproduced in our high fidelity 3D computer simulations," said Prof. Leon Ofman of the Catholic University of America, part of the team that made the discovery.

"They seem to be a common phenomenon. During the first year of the SDO mission, despite the Sun being relatively quiet, we have seen about a dozen such waves," said Dr. Karel Schrijver, principal physicist of LMSAL. "Although their exact trigger mechanism is currently under investigation, they appear to be intimately related to flares that sometimes exhibit pulsations at similar frequencies." Waves such as these are believed to be responsible for many fundamental, yet enigmatic processes on the Sun, such as heating the corona to millions of degrees, accelerating the solar wind, triggering remote eruptions, and delivering energy and information between different parts of the atmosphere. Knowledge of these waves obtained directly from observations is key to understanding the physics of such processes and thus their profound consequences on near-Earth space and the terrestrial environment.

"This discovery and analysis is very significant because we are witnessing phenomena of which we were previously unaware. In light of this discovery, the more we look at solar flares, the more of these waves we see, and as observation and analysis lead to insight, the better we will understand the processes involved," said Dr. Alan Title, AIA Principal Investigator at LMSAL who first noticed the fast propagating waves in routine AIA movies. "The findings announced today are an example of the fruit of a two decade long collaboration, of which we are enormously proud, between Lockheed Martin and Stanford University."

SDO is the first mission and flagship of NASA's Living with a Star (LWS) program launched near the onset of the new solar cycle on February 11, 2010. The goal of LWS is "to improve our understanding of how and why the Sun varies, how the Earth and Solar System respond, and how the variability and response affects humanity in Space and on Earth."

SDO carries three state-of-the-art instruments: the AIA observing the tenuous solar corona permeated with magnetic fields, the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) observing the surface Doppler velocity and magnetic field, and the Extreme UV Variability Experiment (EVE) recording the spatially integrated EUV spectrum of the Sun as a star. According to the LWS program scientist, Dr. Lika Guhathakurta of NASA headquarters, "SDO is our 'Hubble for the Sun'. It promises to transform solar physics in the same way the Hubble Space Telescope has transformed astronomy and cosmology."

The Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory at the ATC conducts basic research into understanding and predicting space weather and the behavior of our Sun including its impacts on Earth and climate. It has a 47-year-long heritage of spaceborne solar instruments including the Soft X-ray Telescope on the Japanese Yohkoh satellite, the Michelson Doppler Imager on the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, the solar telescope on NASA's Transition Region and Coronal Explorer, the Focal Plane Package on the Japanese Hinode satellite, the Solar X-ray Imagers on GOES-N, -O and -P, the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager instruments on NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft, and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. The ATC is currently building both the science instrument and spacecraft for NASA's Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), a Small Explorer Mission scheduled for launch in late 2012.
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Like Licks of Flame

Like Licks of Flame
A close-up, profile view of an active region in extreme ultraviolet light showcased several small spurts of plasma as they flickered out and retreated back into the Sun over about 13 hours (June 16, 2011). This wavelength captures ionized Helium at about 60,000 degrees not far above the Sun's surface. Flashes of small solar flares can be seen triggering most of these spurts. Credit: Solar Dynamics Observatory.


Sunburst could be a big blow

The sun is nearing the peak of its activity cycle, spitting out flares and plasma like a dragon.