In his fall Mubarak drags the credibility of the Western leaders.
|Written by Taco Dankers|
|Saturday, 29 January 2011|
After the 9/11 president Bush was very clear to the world:
“You are either with us or against us”. There is no in-between.
The uprising of the Egyptian and the Tunisian people against their ruling dictators is not supported by the Western Governments. The west did made a clear choice they did not chose for the support of the people that demands democracy, and ergo they are against the democratization of these countries. In the past this choice was rationalized by the stability argument. The USA defend their support for the Arab dictators because these brutal regimes brought at least stability to these countries.
While the rage on the street of Arab started, Mrs. Clinton still thought that the regime in Cairo was stable and brought stability. It shows that the state department is completely out of touch with the reality on the ground. As we write the West is still wavering between the choice for the people of Egypt or for the Dictator Mubarak. It is clear that the USA and in their stream the EU are looking for the best strategic choice. Their man of first choice has been and is still President Mubarak. Western leaders are struggling in finding words that are not to damaging for Mubarak and are at least credible for their own public.
Western politicians do understand that they can not support Mubarak openly, risking to loose all credibility of their own public. A regime switch in Egypt will be a huge game changer for the Western influence in the Middle East.
For example the close down of Gaza, a very unpopular measure in Egypt, depends only and solely on the relation between Mubarak and the USA and the massive financial support of the USA for this dictatorial regime.
In the wake of this unrest, the USA-Israel politics could be completely changed within a couple of weeks or even day’s.
The USA and West had to make a very delicate choice, if they make a wrong decision right now this will have results for the future of the influence of the West in this region. Egypt can in the end turn into an Iran like nightmare for the West. For the coming hours the West and specially the USA will do everything to support Mubarak behind close doors and play down his role in suppressing the Egypt people.
If this policy fails USA will try to maintain the military structure of Egypt that support the Israel-USA politics. A politic that is clearly impossible in a democratic Egypt.
If you do bear in mind that the USA and the West are not in favor of more Democracy in the Middle East, it becomes clear why President Obama is not supporting the people in the street in Cairo and refusing to demand the step down of president Mubarak and refraining from calling him a dictator.
For the coming day’s and hours it will become clear if Mubarak, USA and the West can maintain the political structure of Egypt as it is or at least contain it as much as possible. They have to walk a fine line between credibility and openly support the dictator Mubarak. But whatever the outcome may be, after this weekend the leaders of the West will realize that the biggest thread for the West and pro Israel politic is not the Nuclear reactor in Iran but the demand for democracy of the people in the street in the Arabic world.
Amsterdam, The Netherlands