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Showing posts with label swine flu epidemic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label swine flu epidemic. Show all posts

Friday, May 15, 2009

Swine Flu Update, May 15, 2009

WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - The United States has 4,714 confirmed and likely cases of the new H1N1 swine flu virus, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday.
US now has 4,700 cases of new swine flu - CDC

WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - The United States has 4,714 confirmed and likely cases of the new H1N1 swine flu virus, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday.

Four people have died in the United States from the virus, which is behaving much like a seasonal influenza strain -- spreading rapidly and causing mainly mild disease, but severe illness in some people.

The CDC is now combining its confirmed and probable cases, having said that 99 percent of all suspected cases turn out to be the new H1N1 strain as opposed to other strains of influenza or other respiratory diseases.

The CDC also cautions that not every suspected case is being tested now, as it is more useful to look at the pattern of disease as opposed to counting the numbers. The World Health Organization reports more than 7,500 cases globally, most in the United States and Mexico.

(Reporting by Maggie Fox)

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Pandemic Defined.

Definition of Pandemic

Pandemic: An epidemic (a sudden outbreak) that becomes very widespread and affects a whole region, a continent, or the world.

By contrast:

An epidemic affects more than the expected number of cases of disease occurring in a community or region during a given period of time. A sudden severe outbreak within a region or a group as, for example, AIDS in Africa or AIDS in intravenous drug users.
An endemic is present in a community at all times but in low frequency. An endemic is continuous as in the case of malaria in some areas of the world or as with illicit drugs in some neighborhoods.

The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people. By contrast, "epi-" means "upon." An epidemic is visited upon the people. And "en-" means "in." An endemic is in the people.

Source: MedicineNet.com
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Epidemics and pandemics refer to the spread of infectious diseases among a population. The difference between an epidemic and a pandemic is two-fold. First a pandemic is normally used to indicate a far higher number of people affected than an epidemic, and a pandemic refers to a much larger region affected. In the most extreme case, the global population is affected by a pandemic.

An epidemic is defined by an illness or health-related issue that is showing up in more cases than would be normally expected. However, in the case of a pandemic, even more of the population is affected than in an epidemic.

Let's take a hypothetical example and assume several people contract the same flu-like symptoms in a particular area. Let's further assume that cases show up across the state, but the concentration remains localized in a few original cities. Some cases even turn up elsewhere in the nation, but the illness doesn't catch on elsewhere. In the hubs where it is seen the infection rate remains more than you would expect to normally see. This is a classic example of an epidemic.

Now let's take that same scenario but imagine the rate of infection started growing exponentially so that more and more cases were cropping up locally. When the rate of infection grows very fast it is likely, given favorable circumstances, that the epidemic grows into something more. Now we start seeing cases across the nation and the rate of infection is exceeding even that of an epidemic. It turns out in our hypothetical scenario that most of the population in the nation becomes affected by this flu. This is a pandemic.

To put a finer point on it, if the entire nation was affected but the rate of incidence never rose above that of an epidemic, it would still be considered an epidemic, even though the disease was nationwide.

Conversely, you might have a small population in a remote area of Africa, for example, that is nearly 100% affected by an illness or health problem. Because the incidence is so high, and the area relatively widespread in that it is affecting an entire population, this could be termed pandemic.

You can see with these subtle but significant differences how the terms might be confusing, but normally epidemics that grow out of hand due to the nature of the disease and other factors, turn into pandemics.

A pandemic may be regionally localized if it involves more cases than a simple epidemic; and an epidemic may be widespread if not enough of the population is affected to term it pandemic. Though in this latter case, you might still see it termed pandemic by some, just because the geographical area is so widespread. View Source

Source: WiseGeek.com

Epidemic Defined.

adj.
1. Spreading rapidly and extensively by infection and affecting many individuals in an area or a population at the same time: an epidemic outbreak of influenza.
2. Widely prevalent: epidemic discontent.
n.
1. An outbreak of a contagious disease that spreads rapidly and widely.
2. A rapid spread, growth, or development: an unemployment epidemic.

Source: Answers.com

********************************************

Epidemic \Ep`i*dem"ic\, Epidemical \Ep`i*dem"ic*al\, a. [L. epidemus, Gr. ?, ?, among the people, epidemic; ? in + ? people: cf. F. ['e]pid['e]mique. Cf. Demagogue.]

1. (Med.) Common to, or affecting at the same time, a large number in a community; -- applied to a disease which, spreading widely, attacks many persons at the same time; as, an epidemic disease; an epidemic catarrh, fever, etc. See Endemic.

2. Spreading widely, or generally prevailing; affecting great numbers, as an epidemic does; as, epidemic rage; an epidemic evil.

It was the epidemical sin of the nation. --Bp. Burnet.

Source: Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913)

Mexico Swine Deaths Slow...

By ALEXANDRA OLSON, Associated Press Writers Alexandra Olson, Associated Press Writers

MEXICO CITY – Mexico said a swine flu epidemic appears to be easing, but urged citizens Saturday not to let their guard down against a virus that has killed 17 people and is spreading across Asia and Europe. Experts warned the virus could mutate and come back with a vengeance.

With no suspected swine flu deaths since Wednesday and fewer people turning up at hospitals with virus symptoms, Mexican officials were guardedly optimistic that the worst was over in the outbreak's epicenter. Cases outside Mexico suggested the new swine flu strain is weaker than feared. But governments moved quickly anyway to ban flights and prepare quarantine plans.

In the first known reported case of the new, mutated virus infecting another species, pigs in the province of Alberta have become infected and are under quarantine. They apparently got the virus from a Canadian farm worker who recently visited Mexico and got sick with swine flu, Canadian officials said Saturday.

They told a press conference in Ottawa that the pigs do not pose a food safety risk, adding that the traveler recovered from the swine flu and the pigs are "well on their way to recovery." The outbreak occurred on a single farm, where about 10 percent of 2,200 pigs showed a fever and loss of appetite. No pigs have died from the virus, officials said.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it's too early to declare victory.

The World Health Organization also decided against a full pandemic alert, but that doesn't mean people can relax, said Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO's global alert and response director.

"These viruses mutate, these viruses change, these viruses can further reassort with other genetic material, with other viruses," he said. "So it would be imprudent at this point to take too much reassurance" from the small number of deaths.

"We have seen times where things appear to be getting better and then get worse again," said Dr. Anne Schuchat, the U.S. agency's interim science and public health deputy director. "I think in Mexico we may be holding our breath for some time."

The global caseload was 763 and growing — the vast majority in Mexico, the U.S. and Canada. Costa Rica reported its first confirmed swine flu case — the first in Latin America outside Mexico.

Swine flu cases have been confirmed in 18 countries so far — including Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region — and experts believe the actual spread is much wider than the numbers suggest.

U.S. President Barack Obama urged caution Saturday.

"This is a new strain of the flu virus, and because we haven't developed an immunity to it, it has more potential to cause us harm," Obama said. Later, he spoke with Mexican President Felipe Calderon for about 20 minutes to share information.

What started as a swine flu outbreak more than a week ago in Mexico quickly ballooned to a global health threat, with the WHO declaring a pandemic was imminent. Now public health officials are having to carefully calibrate their statements. Push the message too far, and they could lose credibility if the virus fizzles out. But if they back off and it suddenly surges, the consequences could be much more dire.

Some Mexicans have criticized their government for reacting too slowly to the outbreak at first, and now for overreacting in ordering a five-day, nationwide shutdown of all nonessential government and private business. Responding to the attacks, Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova said: "It's absurd to think that Mexico was putting on a show. I think it's preferable, at a certain moment, to take advanced measures and succeed in containing the problem than to not take them and ask, 'Why didn't we take them?'"

Mexico's last confirmed swine flu death occurred Tuesday, and the last suspected death came Wednesday, said Pablo Kuri, an epidemiologist and adviser to Cordova.

Cordova said hospitals are now handling fewer patients with swine flu symptoms, a sign that the disease is presently not very contagious. Mexican investigators who visited 280 relatives of victims found only four had the virus.

But experts said there is much they don't know about the outbreak in Mexico, where tests confirmed 16 deaths and nearly 450 people sickened. A multinational team of virus sleuths are trying to piece together the epidemiological puzzle.

Kuri said three of the dead were children: a 9-year-old girl, a 12-year-old girl and a 13-year-old boy. Four were older than 60.

The other nine were between 21 and 39 — unusual ages for people to die of the flu because they tend to have stronger immune systems.

Although most of the dead were from Mexico City, they came from different neighborhoods in the metropolis of 20 million people, Kuri said. One common factor may be that they sought treatment too late — an average of seven days before seeing a doctor. For those who recovered, the average wait was three days, said Hugo Lopez-Gatell Ramirez, deputy director of Mexico's Intelligence Unit for Health Emergencies.

Many of the sick around the world were people who had visited Mexico, including 13 of Britain's 15 cases.

South Korea reported Asia's second confirmed case — a woman just back from Mexico — and other governments prepared to quarantine airline passengers, eager to show how they have learned from the deadly SARS epidemic in 2003, when Hong Kong was criticized for imposing quarantines too slowly.

China suspended all direct flights from Mexico and sealed 305 people inside a Hong Kong hotel where an infected Mexican tourist stayed. Health workers in white bodysuits patrolled the lobby where the 25-year-old Mexican stayed before he became Asia's first confirmed case late Friday.

Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa complained that China had isolated 71 Mexican nationals in six cities, including Beijing, without reason — and urged Mexicans not to travel to China until the situation was resolved.

"These are discriminatory measures," she said.

___

Associated Press writers David B. Caruso in New York and Juan Carlos Llorca in Mexico City contributed to this report.

Swine Not the Killer You Think It Is

May 2nd, 2009 2:06 PM Eastern

DR. MARC SIEGEL: Swine Flu — It’s Not the Killer You Think It Is
By Marc Siegel, M.D.

FOX News Medical Contributor/Associate Professor, NYU School of Medicine/Author, “False Alarm; the Truth About the Epidemic of Fear and Bird Flu: Everything You Need to Know About the Next Pandemic”

I was listening to a conference call on Friday, organized by the NYC Health Department about — you guessed it — swine flu (now known as H1N1). The discussion centered around “Influenza-like illness” and it was soon clear to me that…

1) It is a late influenza season this year and some of these illnesses are from the garden-variety mild influenza B.

2) A lot of the so-called “influenza cases” are really just reports by worried people with the sniffles. When all is said and done, it is looking more and more like H1N1 (a designation which describes two proteins on the surface of the flu virus which help it spread) will end up being a mild, over-hyped virus despite the fact that it is new.

In the current swine flu scare the virus is assumed to be a more powerful human killer than it actually is. In reality it appears to losing virulence as it spreads human to human and is not that transmissable, and is NOT becoming widespread.

As I described in my book “False Alarm; the Truth About the Epidemic of Fear,” there is a history of hysterical ovverreaction to health risks in this country especially as evidenced by the swine flu fiasco of 1976, SARS in 2003 and the bird flu scare in 2005.

In each case, Some of this overreaction was due to a distortion of the scientific information about the virus itself. In 1976, when a swine flu virus appeared to kill a military recruit and then be present in the blood of 500 others (who never got sick) this led to a massive hysteria and vaccination program for a pandemic that never occurred. Forty millon Americas were vaccinated and ascending paralysis (also known as Guillain Barre Syndrome) was associated with recipients in close to 1,000 patients.

The fears that prompted the mass vaccination were due to the ghost of the 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed at least 50 million worldwide. In 1976 and 2003 SARS, and again in 2006 with the bird flu, false assumptions were made connecting the memory of 1918 with another potential scourge.

Back in 1976 the prevailing theory was that pigs had been the source of the 1918 Spanish Flu, which was later disproven but served as an impetus for the hysteria at the time. In 2005, the knowledge that the 1918 scary virus was “bird-like” led the fearmongers to point a finger at an equally scary H5N1 virus that was killing millions of birds. But lost in the panic was the knowledge that human pandemics had likely never been caused by an H5 virus before.

In the current swine flu scare the virus is assumed to be a more powerful human killer than it actually is. In reality it appears to losing virulence as it spreads human to human and is not that transmissable, and is NOT becoming widespread.

The vast overreaction to this virus and its potential has severe economic consequences as it did previously in 1976, 2003, and 2006. This time the hysteria may lead to billions of dollars lost to the travel industry, tourism, the Mexican economy, and to closing schools due to hysterical children and overreacting nurses. Vice President Biden’s statement that we should all avoid planes, trains, and crowded places was not at all consistent with the very low prevalence of the virus. It made me think he had become disoriented and suddenly thought he was back in 1918! Even President Obama’s statement that we should wash our hands (of course we should, they are loaded with bacteria and viruses of all kinds) sent the wrong message that there is far more of this particular virus around than there actually is. (The chance that this virus is on your hands as you read this is extremely close to zero).

Despite the fact that you can’t get this virus from eating pork, Egypt is destroying its pigs and several other countries are not importing pigs from the U.S. or Mexico. This is another form of hysteria.

Perhaps the greatest overreaction of all is the new pandemic alert system that the World Health Organization developed in response to the 2005 bird flu scare (an alert system developed in response to a scare??). Though it is reasonable to call a pandemic for an extensive spread of a new strain of killer flu to many parts of the world at once, what is sorely lacking in this alert system is any counting of actual cases or number of deaths before raising the alert level. As a result, we may end up with the first pandemic in history with less than a thousand deaths. Consider that the last pandemic, the 1968 Hong Kong Flu, which was controlled with the help of vaccines, public health measures, and treatments for secondary infections with antibiotics, killed 750,000 worldwide.

It look like H1N1 is another pandemic of mostly of fear — something that is stronger and more infectious than any virus.

Marc Siegel M.D., a FOX Medical Contributor, is the author of “False Alarm; the Truth About the Epidemic of Fear and Bird Flu: Everything You Need to Know About the Next Pandemic.”

CDC Swine Flu Report

U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection
(As of May 2, 2009, 11:00 AM ET)

Arizona 4
California 24
Colorado 2
Connecticut 1
Delaware 4
Florida 2
Illinois 3
Indiana 3
Kansas 2
Kentucky* 1
Massachusetts 8
Michigan 2
Minnesota 1
Missouri 1
Nevada 1
New Jersey 7
New York 50
Ohio 1
South Carolina 13
Texas 28 cases and 1 death
Virginia 2

TOTAL (21) 160 cases 1 death

CDC continues to take aggressive action to respond to an expanding outbreak caused by H1N1 (swine flu).
CDC’s response goals are to:

Reduce transmission and illness severity, and
Provide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by this emergency.
CDC continues to issue and update interim guidance daily in response to the rapidly evolving situation. This includes guidance on when to close schools and how to care for someone who is sick at home. Supplies from CDC’s Division of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) are being sent to all 50 states and U.S. territories to help them respond to the outbreak. In addition, the Federal Government and manufacturers have begun the process of developing a vaccine against this new virus.

Response actions are aggressive, but they may vary across states and communities depending on local circumstances. Communities, businesses, places of worship, schools and individuals can all take action to slow the spread of this outbreak. People who are sick are urged to stay home from work or school and to avoid contact with others, except to seek medical care. This action can avoid spreading illness further.
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/

Swine Flu in Utah.

Swine flu confirmed in Summit Co. www.ksl.com
May 2nd, 2009 @ 2:05pm

PARK CITY -- Summit County health officials say the CDC has confirmed a case of H1N1 virus, or swine flu, in a school-aged child from Park City.

Steve Jenkins, director of the Summit County Health Department, said during a news conference Saturday morning that the student apparently contracted the virus while in Mexico on spring break. Since then, the student has fully recovered.

Park City schools will remain closed through May 10 to limit the possibility of transmitting the virus, said Tom VanGorder, director of student services for the Park City School District.

The state's first probable cases of the virus were reported in three students from that district on Wednesday. The district closed schools there while awaiting test results from the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta.

By week's end, Utah health officials had sent nine probable cases to the CDC for testing. With the confirmed case, there are now five probable cases reported in Summit County, three in Salt Lake County, and one in Morgan-Weber Health District. Results of those tests could arrive as early as Sunday. So far, all of those cases are said to be mild. None have required hospitalization.

Dr. David Sundwall, executive director of the Utah Department of Health, said he expects more cases to be confirmed. Yet he is not greatly concerned that this will be a serious epidemic. He says the virus appears to be acting like seasonal flu.

Saturday Utah received some kits from the CDC that will allow it to confirm cases within a day. The health department said it will take a couple of days to test the kits before they are put into use.

Early detection can be more critical than treatment. It can also make a difference in how long or even if a school closes.

Right now, all Park City schools and Judge Memorial High School in Salt Lake are closed.

Mexico reported no new deaths from swine flu overnight. But the virus keeps spreading around the world, with new cases confirmed in Europe and Asia.

Mexico's confirmed caseload grew to 443. The U.S. count rose to 171 and there were 716 confirmed swine flu cases worldwide. www.ksl.com

Friday, May 1, 2009

Swine in 1976. Did we learn a lesson that will carry over to 2009?

1976: Fear of a great plague
By PAUL MICKLE / The Trentonian

On the cold afternoon of February 5, 1976, an Army recruit told his drill instructor at Fort Dix that he felt tired and weak but not sick enough to see military medics or skip a big training hike.

Within 24 hours, 19-year-old Pvt. David Lewis of Ashley Falls, Mass., was dead, killed by an influenza not seen since the plague of 1918-19, which took 500,000 American lives and 20 million worldwide.

Two weeks after the recruit's death, health officials disclosed to America that something called "swine flu" had killed Lewis and hospitalized four of his fellow soldiers at the Army base in Burlington County.

The ominous name of the flu alone was enough to touch off civilian fear of an epidemic. And government doctors knew from tests hastily conducted at Dix after Lewis' death that 500 soldiers had caught swine flu without falling ill.

Any flu able to reach that many people so fast was capable of becoming another worldwide plague, the doctors warned, raising these questions:

Does America mobilize for mass inoculations in time to have everybody ready for the next flu season? Or should the country wait to see if the new virus would, as they often do, get stronger to hit harder in the second year?

Thus was born what would become known to some medical historians as a fiasco and to others as perhaps the finest hour of America's public health bureaucracy.

Only young Lewis died from the swine flu itself in 1976. But as the critics are quick to point out, hundreds of Americans were killed or seriously injured by the inoculation the government gave them to stave off the virus.

According to his sister-in-law, John Kent of President Avenue in Lawrence went to his grave in 1997 believing the shot from the government had killed his first wife, Mary, long before her time.

Among other critics are Arthur M. Silverstein, whose book, "Pure Politics and Impure Science," suggests President Gerald Ford's desire to win the office on his own, as well as the influence of America's big drug manufacturers, figured into the decision to immunize all 220 million Americans.

Still, even the partisan who first branded Ford's program a fiasco, says now that it happened because America's public health establishment identified what easily could have been a new plague and mobilized to beat it amazingly well.

To understand the fear of the time you have to know something about the plague American soldiers seemed to bring home with them after fighting in Europe during World War I.

The Great Plague, as it came to be called, rivaled the horrid Black Death of medieval times in its ability to strike suddenly and take lives swiftly. In addition to the half million in America, it killed 20 million people around the world.

It got its name because it was a brand of flu usually found in domestic pigs and wild swine. It was long thought to have come, like so many flus, out of the Chinese farm country, where people and domestic pigs live closely together.

Recent research has shown, however, that the post-WWI flu was brought to Europe by American troops who had been based in the South before they went to war. Medical detectives, still working on the case in the 1990s, determined that a small group of our soldiers took swine flu to Europe and that it spread to the world from there.

How the swine flu got to Fort Dix in 1976 still hasn't been tracked down. At the time, Dix military doctors knew only that a killer flu had made it to the base and that they were lucky more men hadn't died or been sickened seriously.

Weeks after Lewis died, doctors from the Centers for Disease Control and other federal public health officials were meeting in Washington, trying to decide if they should recommend the government start a costly program of mass inoculations.

One doc later told the authors of "The Epidemic that Never Was" that he and others in on the meetings realized there was "nothing in this for the CDC except trouble," especially because a decision had to be made fast to get the immunizations manufactured by the fall.
"...The obvious thing to do was immunize everybody," the doctor said. "But if we tried to do that ... we might have to interrupt a hell of a lot of work on other diseases."

The doctors knew they faced complaints if the epidemic broke out and vaccines weren't ready, as well as criticism if they spent millions inoculating people for a plague that didn't happen.
"As for 'another 1918,' 1 didn't expect that," the doctor continued in the book. "But who could be sure? It would wreck us. Yet, if there weren't a pandemic, we'd be charged with wasting public money, crying wolf and causing all the inconvenience for nothing ... It was a no-win situation."

By mid-March, CDC Director Dr. David J. Sencer had lined up most of the medical establishment behind his plan to call on Ford to support a $135 million program of mass inoculation.

On March 24, one day after a surprise loss to Ronald Reagan in the North Carolina Republican presidential primary, Ford decided to make the announcement to the American public.

Congress still had to appropriate the money, of course, and that wasn't going to be easy. Even before official congressional consideration of the plan was taken up, there were forces arguing against it.

Another big hurdle was the drug makers, who were insisting the government take liability for any harmful side effects from the vaccine. During congressional hearings in the spring and early summer, lawmakers heard some naysayers who noted that the swine flu of last winter never got beyond Dix and that only one death had been reported.

The president and his experts prevailed, however, and on Aug. 12 Congress put up the money to get the job done. The mighty task was put into the hands of a charismatic 33-year-old physician for the Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Dr. W. Delano Meriwether, a world-class sprinter who still competed in track meets.

Now he was in a race for life, or so he thought. Meriwether was given until the end of the year to get all 220 million Americans inoculated against swine flu.

By Oct. 1, the makers had the serums ready and America's public health bureaucracy had lined up thousands of doctors, nurses and paramedics to give out the shots at medical centers, schools and firehouses across the nation.

Jim Florio, then an ambitious rookie Democratic congressman supporting Jimmy Carter for president, didn't use the situation to take a shot at Ford. He lined up and was the first Jersey resident to take the inoculation.

Within days, however, several people who had taken the shot fell seriously ill. On Oct. 12, three elderly people in the Pittsburgh area suffered heart attacks and died within hours of getting the shot, which led to suspension of the program in Pennsylvania.

Jersey pressed on with inoculations, however. Through the fall, even as more bad reports about the side effects of the vaccine came out, thousands of mostly older people in Greater Trenton lined up outside health centers, schools and firehouses to get the shot, sometimes waiting for an hour.

One of them was Lawrence's Mary Kent, a 45-year-old mother of two teenage boys who couldn't tie the ribbons on Christmas presents only days after she got her shot at the Trenton War Memorial in early December.

On Dec. 16, increasingly concerned about reports of the vaccine touching off neurological problems, especially rare Guillain-Barre syndrome, the government suspended the program, having inoculated 40 million people for a flu that never came.

By year's end, Jack Kent knew his wife was seriously ill and started reading all about the side effects of the president's flu inoculation, especially nerve problems like those his wife was experiencing.

Even before Mary Kent died an invalid at age 51 in January 1982, Kent had joined the hundreds of Americans who filed suit against the government on behalf of children left without a parent due to fatal side effects from the swine flu vaccine.

Kent's sister-in-law, also named Mary Kent, recalled the other day that Jack Kent died in 1997 still angrily blaming the government for giving his wife Guillian-Barre, leading to her death.

The swine flu case of 1976 forever reduced confidence in public health pronouncements from the government and helped foster cynicism about federal policy makers that continues to this day.

Citing the swine flu fiasco, for instance, one scholar recently authored a report suggesting the threat of AIDS has been similarly overblown.

Yet Joseph Califano, one of the earliest to use the word "fiasco" in describing the swine flu affair, came to the conclusion that it all couldn't have been avoided. Califano, whom President Carter appointed Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare after beating Ford in the November election, said the doctors had no choice but to err on the side of the caution.

In "The Epidemic That Never Was," Califano said that faced with the threat of another killer plague with the potential to end millions of lives, the doctors were right to seek an inoculation program. Capital Century

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Get Your Two Week Supply Ready.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

Community Planning for Swine Flu
April 28, 2009 6:45 PM ET

Script
Health officials are concerned about a new influenza virus of swine origin that’s spreading from person to person. Officials are acting to combat this threat, but the outbreak might grow. So be prepared.

Store a two-week supply of food and water. Have two weeks of your regular prescription drugs at home. Keep health supplies on hand, including pain relievers and cold medicines.

For more details, visit www.cdc.gov/swineflu or call 1-800-CDC-INFO.

A message from HHS.

CDC.gov
H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu)
Swine Flu website last updated April 30, 2009, 10:30 AM ET

U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection
(As of April 30, 2009, 10:30 AM ET)
Arizona 1
California 14
Indiana 1
Kansas 2
Massachusetts 2
Michigan 1
Nevada 1
New York 50
Ohio 1
South Carolina 10
Texas 26 cases and 1 death

TOTAL COUNTS 109 cases 1 death (someone visiting from Mexico)

...the World Health Organization raised the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 5 on April 29, 2009. A Phase 5 alert is a “strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.”

The United States Government has declared a public health emergency...CDC’s response goals are to reduce transmission and illness severity, and provide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by this emergency...

...CDC’s Division of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) continues to send antiviral drugs, personal protective equipment, and respiratory protection devices to all 50 states and U.S. territories to help them respond to the outbreak. The swine influenza A (H1N1) virus is susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. In addition, the Federal Government and manufacturers have begun the process of developing a vaccine against this new virus.

"People do not normally get swine flu, but human infections can and do happen. Swine flu viruses have been reported to spread from person-to-person, but in the past, this transmission was limited and not sustained beyond three people...

In late March and early April 2009, cases of human infection with swine influenza A (H1N1) viruses were first reported in Southern California and near Guadalupe County, Texas...

No. Swine influenza viruses are not spread by food. You cannot get swine influenza from eating pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork products is safe...

Infected people may be able to infect others beginning 1 day before symptoms develop and up to 7 or more days after becoming sick...

CDC recommends the use of oseltamivir or zanamivir for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with these swine influenza viruses. Antiviral drugs are prescription medicines (pills, liquid or an inhaler) that fight against the flu by keeping flu viruses from reproducing in your body. If you get sick, antiviral drugs can make your illness milder and make you feel better faster. They may also prevent serious flu complications. For treatment, antiviral drugs work best if started soon after getting sick (within 2 days of symptoms)...

Children, especially younger children, might potentially be contagious for longer periods...

...some viruses and bacteria can live 2 hours or longer on surfaces like cafeteria tables, doorknobs, and desks. Frequent handwashing will help you reduce the chance of getting contamination from these common surfaces...

...There is no vaccine available right now to protect against swine flu...

...Like seasonal flu, swine flu in humans can vary in severity from mild to severe. Between 2005 until January 2009, 12 human cases of swine flu were detected in the U.S. with no deaths occurring. However, swine flu infection can be serious. In September 1988, a previously healthy 32-year-old pregnant woman in Wisconsin was hospitalized for pneumonia after being infected with swine flu and died 8 days later. A swine flu outbreak in Fort Dix, New Jersey occurred in 1976 that caused more than 200 cases with serious illness in several people and one death...

...CDC’s Division of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) continues to send antiviral drugs, personal protective equipment, and respiratory protection devices to all 50 states and U.S. territories to help them respond to the outbreak..."

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Diversionary Tactics? Economy Worse.

Now that you have comparative data (prior post), showing that the true resistant flu is not the Swine Flu (H1N1), but instead H3N2, you may want to see the newest twist.

First, by now you may have already read or heard the we had our first "American" death from the Swine Flu. Well, while I have sympathy for anyone who loses a loved one, the toddler wasn't really "American". It happened on our soil, yes. However, the child was visiting from Mexico.

While any spread of illness is a serious issue (and I am certainly of the opinion that you should be prepared), flu illnesses are not uncommon and that includes new strains.

I still wonder why there is so much attention being paid when a simple warning could be put into place for prevention measures (i.e., washing hands which everyone should do anyway).

When you read the story below (along with the fact that $1.5 billion has been pulled off by Obama as an emergency fund even though we have strategic reserves of antivirals) you may wonder why the economy has not been touted the main story of the day...

Economy shrinks at 6.1 percent pace in 1Q

Jeannine Aversa, Ap Economics Writer
WASHINGTON – The economy shrank at a worse-than-expected 6.1 percent pace at the start of this year as sharp cutbacks by businesses and the biggest drop in U.S. exports in 40 years overwhelmed a rebound in consumer spending.

The Commerce Department's report, released Wednesday, dashed hopes that the recession's grip on the country loosened in the first quarter. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a 5 percent annualized decline.

Instead, the economy ended up performing nearly as bad as it had in the final three months of last year when it logged the worst slide in a quarter-century, contracting at a 6.3 percent pace. Nervous consumers played a prominent role in that dismal showing as they ratcheted back spending in the face of rising unemployment, falling home values and shrinking nest eggs.

In the January-March quarter consumers came back to life, boosting their spending after two straight quarters of reductions. The 2.2 percent growth rate was the strongest in two years.

Much stronger demand for big-ticket "durable" goods, including cars, furniture and household appliances led the increase. That spending rose at a 9.4 pace, the most in a year. Consumers also boosted spending on clothing, shoes, recreation services, medical care, gasoline and other energy products. But not on food, where spending dipped slightly.

Still, the consumer rebound was swamped by heavy spending cuts in virtually every other area.

Businesses cut spending on home building, commercial construction, equipment and software, and inventories of goods. Sales of U.S. goods to foreign buyers plunged as they retrenched in the face of economic troubles in their own countries. Even the government trimmed spending. It was the first time that happened since the end of 2005.

All told, the economy logged its worst six-month performance since the late 1950s.

The sharp cuts underscore the toll the housing, credit and financial crises — the worst since the 1930s — are having on the country. The recession, which began in December 2007, has taken a big bite out of national economic activity and snatched 5.1 million jobs.

To cushion the impact of the downturn, the Federal Reserve has slashed a key bank lending rate to a record low near zero and rolled out a string of radical programs to spur lending. The Fed at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday is expected to keep its key rate near zero and probably hold it there well into next year.

Wall Street shook off the weak gross domestic product reading as it awaited the Fed's assessment of the economy. The Dow Jones industrial average added more than 155 points in midday trading and broader indices also rose.

President Barack Obama is counting on his $787 billion stimulus of tax cuts and increased government spending on big public works projects to help bolster economic activity later this year. The administration also has put forward programs to rescue banks and curb home foreclosures — big negative forces weighing on the economy.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs called the first-quarter's showing a "pretty severe contraction," but added that some more up-to-date signals on the economy have been more encouraging. "We continue to get, as the president said, some glimmers of hope," he said.

Even in the face of Wednesday's weaker-than-expected report, some analysts stuck to predictions that the economy would shrink less in the current April-June period — at a pace of 1 to 2.5 percent — as Obama's stimulus begins to take hold. Those analysts also continue to hope the economy would start to grow again in the final quarter of this year.

"The recession was bad in the first quarter but won't be as bad going forward," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia. "I don't think this lessens the expected pattern that the economy will be entering a recovery by the end of this year."

However, the recent outbreak of the swine flu, which started out in Mexico and has spread to the United States and elsewhere, poses a new potential danger. If the flu stifles trade and forces consumers to cut back further, those negative forces would worsen the recession.

Before the flu outbreak, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the recession could end this year if the government succeeds in stabilizing the shaky financial system and getting banks to lend again.

In recent weeks, Bernanke and his colleagues had cited "tentative signs" of the recession easing in some consumer spending, home building and other reports. Finance officials from the U.S. and other top economic powers meeting here last week also saw some hopeful signs for the global economy.

Fresh glimmers of hope emerged in the U.S. Tuesday. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose far more than expected in April, jumping more than 12 points to 39.2, the highest level since November. And a housing index showed that home prices dropped sharply in February, but for the first time in 25 months the decline was not a record.

However, in the first quarter there was much weakness in those areas and others.

Spending on home building fell at a 38 percent annualized rate, the most since the second quarter of 1980. Businesses cut spending on equipment and software at a 33.8 percent pace, the most since the first quarter of 1958.

Inventory reductions shaved 2.79 percentage points off overall first-quarter economic activity. But with stockpiles slashed, any pickup in business sales would help increase production and bolster the economy in the current quarter.

Still, U.S. exports plunged at a rate of 30 percent, the biggest drop since the first quarter of 1969, reflecting the crimped appetite of struggling foreign buyers. The government also cut spending 3.9 percent, the most since the end of 1995.

Even if the recession were to end this year, the economy will remain feeble and unemployment will keep climbing, government officials and analysts say.

The Labor Department on Wednesday said that all 372 metropolitan areas tracked saw their jobless rates rise in March from a year earlier. The rate in Indiana's Elkhart-Goshen region soared to 18.8 percent, up 13 percentage points, which was the biggest gain in the country.

The national jobless rate is now at a quarter-century high of 8.5 percent and is expected to hit 10 percent by the end of this year. It will probably rise a bit higher in early 2010 before starting to slowly drift downward. Still, the Fed predicts unemployment will stay elevated into 2011, and economists don't think it will return to normal — around a 5 percent jobless rate — until 2013.

More layoffs were announced this week. Textron Inc. said it will expand layoffs, eliminating 8,300 jobs, or 20 percent, of its global work force as the recession weakens demand for corporate planes. The maker of Cessna planes, Bell helicopters and turf-maintenance equipment earlier this year said it would reduce its work force by 6,200 jobs, or 15 percent, mostly at Wichita, Kansas-based Cessna.

General Motors Corp. laid out a massive restructuring plan that includes cutting 21,000 U.S. factory jobs by next year. Clear Channel Communications Inc., the largest owner of U.S. radio stations, said it's cutting 590 jobs in its second round of mass layoffs this year amid pressure from the recession and evaporating advertising budgets. And bearings and specialty steels maker Timken Co. indicated it will cut about 4,000 more jobs by the end of this year after earlier suggesting about 3,000 jobs already had been targeted.

Swine Flu. Comparative Statistical Data. Resistance.



CDC site

Influenza A (H1N1) 0.4% resistant
Influenza A (H3N2) 100% resistant

Swine flu spreads in 10 US states, Europe

WASHINGTON – Virulent swine flu spread to 10 U.S. states from coast to coast Wednesday and swept deeper into Europe, extending its global reach as President Barack Obama mourned the first U.S. death, a Mexican toddler who had traveled with his family to Texas. Total American cases surged to nearly 100, and Obama said wider school closings might be necessary.

The World Health Organization said the outbreak is moving closer to becoming a full-scale pandemic.

Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the organization's top flu expert, told reporters in Geneva that the latest developments are moving the agency closer to raising its pandemic alert to phase 5, indicating widespread human-to-human transmission. That's just one step below level 6, a full-fledged pandemic.

In Washington, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano was questioned closely by senators about whether the U.S. should close its border with Mexico, where the outbreak apparently began and the casualties have been the greatest. She repeated the administration's position that questioning of people at borders and ports of entry was sufficient for now and said closing borders "has not been merited by the facts."

Dr. Richard Besser, the acting chief of the Centers for Disease Control, said in Atlanta that there are confirmed cases now in ten states, with 51 in New York, 14 in California and 16 in Texas. Two cases have been confirmed in Kansas, Massachusetts and Michigan, while a single cases have been reported in Arizona, Indiana, Nevada and Ohio.

In a possible outbreak north of the Mexican border, the commandant of the Marine Corps said a Marine in southern California might have the illness and 39 Marines were being confined on their California base until tests come back.

Marine General James Conway told a Pentagon briefing an initial test indicated the sick Marine — who was not identified — might have swine flu but his illness did not appear life-threatening.

Obama said he wanted to extend "my thoughts and prayers" to the family of a nearly two-year-old Mexican boy who died in Houston, the first confirmed U.S. fatality among more than five dozen infections. Health officials in Texas said the child had traveled with his family from Mexico, to Brownsville on April 4 and was brought to Houston after becoming ill. He died Monday night.

"This is obviously a serious situation," and "we are closely and continuously monitoring" it, Obama said of the spreading illness.

Those sentiments were echoed by the Senate's top Republican. "This is a very worrisome situation and we're all following it very closely," said Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. "We stand ready to closely work with the administration to protect the American people as this situation unfolds."

Meanwhile, Egypt's government ordered the slaughter of all pigs in the country as a precaution, though no swine flu cases have been reported there. Egypt's overwhelmingly Muslim population does not eat pork, but farmers raise some 300,000-350,000 pigs for the Christian minority.

The disease is not spread by eating pork, and farmers were to be allowed to sell the meat from the slaughtered animals.

In fact, officials appeared to go out of their way on Wednesday to not call the strain "swine flu." Obama called the bug the "H1N1 virus."

"The disease is not a food-borne illness," Rear Adm. Anne Schuchat, CDC's interim science and public health deputy direct, told the Senate Homeland Security Committee.

She said the strain is particularly worrisome because "it's a virus that hasn't been around before. The general population doesn't have immunity from it."

People have various levels of protection against other more common types of flu because they are exposed to it over time, and that protection accumulates. She suggested that some older people might have more resistance to this particular strain than younger people because its traits might resemble outbreaks of decades ago.

Germany became the latest country to report swine flu infections. It reported four cases on Wednesday.

New Zealand's total rose to 14. Britain had earlier reported five cases, Spain four. There were 13 cases in Canada, two in Israel and one in Austria.

Obama said it is the recommendation of public health officials that authorities at schools with confirmed or suspected cases of swine flu "should strongly consider temporarily closing so that we can be as safe as possible."

He was underscoring advice that the CDC provided earlier to cities and states, and that some schools — most prominently in New York City — already have followed.

"If the situation becomes more serious and we have to take more extensive steps, then parents should also think about contingencies if schools in their areas do temporarily shut down, figuring out and planning what their child care situation would be," Obama advised.

He advised people to take their own precautions — washing hands, staying home if they are sick, and keeping sick kids home.

Obama said the federal government is "prepared to do whatever is necessary to control the impact of this virus." He noted his request for $1.5 billion in emergency funding to ensure adequate supplies of vaccines.

CDC for days has said people with flulike symptoms should stay home — but now also is stressing that other family members should consider staying home or at least limiting how much they go out until they're sure they didn't catch it.

Besser, the acting CDC director, called it "an abundance of caution," but stressed that it's voluntary and that the government hasn't urged actual quarantine, which isn't really effective with flu.

Human Infections with Swine Influenza A Virus:
On April 17, 2009, CDC and the California Department of Public Health determined that two cases of febrile respiratory illness occurring in children who reside in adjacent counties in southern California were caused by infection with a swine influenza A (H1N1) virus. On April 22, CDC confirmed an additional three cases of swine influenza among residents of the two counties, two adults and one adolescent. All case-patients had symptoms of ILI. Additional testing at CDC identified swine influenza A (H1N1). All five had self-limited ILI and have recovered; one required hospitalization. Two additional cases were identified from Texas and confirmed as swine influenza at CDC on April 23.

Of the five case-patients with swine influenza A (H1N1) infection from California, two are a father and daughter and other than the father-daughter, the five case-patients have no known epidemiologic link or contact with pigs. The two new case-patients from Texas are schoolmates and an epidemiologic investigation is currently underway.

The viruses from all seven cases are closely related genetically and contain a unique combination of gene segments that have not been reported in the United States or elsewhere. Viruses from 6 cases are all resistant to amantadine and rimantidine and sensitive to zanamivir and oseltamivir, and sensitivity testing is underway for the remaining virus.

Vaccination with seasonal influenza vaccine containing human influenza A (H1N1) would not be expected to provide protection against swine influenza A (H1N1) viruses.

Additional information on swine influenza is available at http://www.cdc.gov/flu/swine/index.htm

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Swine Flu Update.


Swine Influenza (Flu)

Swine Flu website last updated April 28, 2009 11:00 AM ET

U.S. Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection
(As of April 28, 2009 11:00 AM ET)

California 10 cases
Kansas 2 cases
New York City 45 cases
Ohio 1 case
Texas 6 cases
TOTAL COUNT 64 cases

The human swine flu outbreak continues to grow in the United States and internationally. Today, CDC reports additional cases of confirmed swine influenza and a number of hospitalizations of swine flu patients. Internationally, the situation is more serious too, with additional countries reporting confirmed cases of swine flu. In response to the intensifying outbreak, the World Health Organization raised the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 4. A Phase 4 alert is characterized by confirmed person-to-person spread of a new influenza virus able to cause “community-level” outbreaks.” The increase in the pandemic alert phase indicates that the likelihood of a pandemic has increased.

CDC has activated its emergency operations center to coordinate the agency’s emergency response. CDC ’s goals are to reduce transmission and illness severity, and provide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by this swine influenza virus. Yesterday, CDC issued a travel warning recommending that people avoid non-essential travel to Mexico. CDC continues to issue interim guidance daily on the website and through health alert network notices. CDC’s Division of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) is releasing one-quarter of its antiviral drugs, personal protective equipment, and respiratory protection devices to help states respond to the outbreak. The swine influenza A (H1N1) virus is susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC will provide updated guidance and new information as it becomes available.

WebMD...
What is swine flu?
Like people, pigs can get influenza (flu), but swine flu viruses aren't the same as human flu viruses. Swine flu doesn't often infect people, and the rare human cases that have occurred in the past have mainly affected people who had direct contact with pigs. But the current swine flu outbreak is different. It's caused by a new swine flu virus that has spread from person to person -- and it's happening among people who haven't had any contact with pigs.

What are swine flu symptoms?
Symptoms of swine flu are like regular flu symptoms and include fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, headache, chills, and fatigue. Some people have reported diarrhea and vomiting associated with swine flu. Those symptoms can also be caused by many other conditions, and that means that you and your doctor can't know, just based on your symptoms, if you've got swine flu. It takes a lab test to tell whether it's swine flu or some other condition.

If I think I have swine flu, what should I do? When should I see my doctor?
If you have flu symptoms, stay home, and when you cough or sneeze, cover your mouth and nose with a tissue. Afterward, throw the tissue in the trash and wash your hands. That will help prevent your flu from spreading.

If you've got flu symptoms, and you've recently been to a high-risk area like Mexico, CDC officials recommend that you see your doctor. If you have flu symptoms but you haven't been in a high-risk area, you can still see a doctor -- that's your call.

Keep in mind that your doctor will not be able to determine whether you have swine flu, but he or she would take a sample from you and send it to a state health department lab for testing to see if it's swine flu. If your doctor suspects swine flu, he or she would be able to write you a prescription for Tamiflu or Relenza. Those drugs may not be required; U.S. swine flu patients have made a full recovery without it.