A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken Monday through Thursday of this past week — shows the two presidential candidates tied at 48 percent.
It’s a fitting end to a presidential contest that has teetered on parity in recent months — Obama was ahead by one point in the Battleground poll last week, while Romney edged the president by two points the week before.
History shows that most of the three percent of remaining undecided voters probably won’t go to the polls on Tuesday, so the winner will be determined by which candidate can turnout more of their supporters in the 10 or so competitive states.
Obama continues to be perceived as the frontrunner. (bold added) Regardless of who they’re supporting, 53 percent of voters say they believe the nation’s first African-American president will win a second term. Historically, this question offers a good predictor of who winds up the victor.
The race is not just neck-and-neck on the head-to-head matchup. A host of fresh data reflects just how closely divided the country is two days before voters choose the next president.
Independents are now split evenly, with Obama up 44 to 43 percent. A week ago, Romney had a 10-point advantage among this key demographic. The ranks of independents shrunk partly because more right-leaning voters now supporting Romney identified with the Republican Party.
On the generic congressional ballot, Republicans are tied with Democrats at 46 percent. On this measure, Republicans led the last two weeks after Democrats had an advantage for much of the fall.
An identical number approve the president’s job performance, 49 percent, as disapprove.
Romney and Obama are now at parity on likability: 51 percent view Obama favorably while 50 percent view Romney favorably. Meanwhile, 45 percent of respondents view Obama unfavorably and 44 percent view Romney unfavorably.
Democrats continue to have an advantage on early voting, but Republicans closed the gap somewhat over the past week.
A full 27 percent of those surveyed said they’ve already cast their ballot. Of them, Obama leads 50 to 48 percent.
Another 58 percent who have not voted yet described themselves as “extremely likely” to vote. Of them, Romney leads 49 to 46 percent.
A week ago, 17 percent of Democrats said they had already voted and 13 percent of Republicans did. Now 27 percent of both Democrats and Republicans say they’ve already cast their ballots.
“We caught up with Democrats on the early vote,” Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group, who helped conduct the poll, said Saturday.
Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster who helped conduct the bipartisan poll, notes that the intensity gap narrowed: 57 percent of Democrats who have not yet voted say they are certain to vote, compared to 59 percent for Republicans
“The last week has been good for the president. We now just have to bring the vote home,” she said. “And in some ways that task is getting easier for the Democrats because we’ve already banked our harder votes to get.”
Obama appears to have gained politically from Hurricane Sandy — which battered the Northeast this past week — at least so far. (bold added)
Across the Northeastern states, the poll finds Obama up by 20 points, 58 to 38 percent. A week ago, he was only up 8 percent in the region.
New Jersey GOP Gov. Chris Christie, a top Romney surrogate, was seen on television praising Obama for his handling of the storm and toured the devastation with the president — even doing a joint press conference that generated powerful photo ops for the White House.
Obama expanded his edge by 2 points on which of the two candidates “shares your values” last week. He’s now favored 49 to 44 percent over Romney. The incumbent’s advantage on “being a strong leader” also held steady at 49 to 46 percent.
Goeas feels confident that Romney has the edge, especially because the sitting president is not breaking the critical 50 percent threshold.
“I’m still very encouraged by looking at the undertow of what’s here. I think there were some effects during the week with the storm: forced positive advertising, a little bit of taking your foot off the accelerator,” he said.
“One of the things that is going to be very interesting to watch is that Obama took ownership of the storm, [saying] ‘We’re going to make sure everything happens.’ He now has ownership of the storm, and the news coming out of there is not necessarily very good news for the next couple days.”
The president visited the Federal Emergency Management Agency on Saturday morning, and if power outages and gasoline shortages in places like Staten Island, N.Y., continue it could become a distraction for the party in power.
“Every campaign for an incumbent [has] I think the medical term that they use is last gasp,” said Goeas. “You’re on your death bed, and you’re kind of ‘ooooh.’ For a minute there, it seems like you’re coming back. And then it’s your last breath. I don’t know with the way things are going that the storm doesn’t end up being his last gasp.”
Romney has continued to build up an edge on who can best get things done, the key emphasis of his closing argument in rallies – including two in Colorado on Saturday. One month ago, Obama and Romney tied at 46 percent on this measure — Romney now has the edge by six points, 49 to 43 percent.
Obama’s standing on the economy remains potentially perilously. A majority of respondents, 52 percent, disapprove of how he’s handled the issue. Romney has a four-point edge on the questions of which candidate would better grow the economy and create jobs, 50 to 46 percent, in both cases.
Among those who name pocketbook issues at their top priority — which is 71 percent of the electorate — Romney leads 56 percent to 41 percent.
“The more they stay on the economic issues, the more you see Romney doing well,” said Goeas. “He still has a good lead on handling the economy, on handling jobs, on handling spending. He’s actually been increasing his margin on ‘can get things done.’ I think the combination of those things is the Romney message and the Romney campaign.”
Lake notes that Romney has consistently held an edge on who is better for the economy, but he hasn’t been able to close the deal. She does not see those voters breaking for Romney in the final hours.
“Basically Romney has not been able to translate to his advantage the fact that people think he’d be able to do better on the economy,” said Lake. “He has a 4 to 5 point advantage and isn’t translating it into the ballot.”
With very few voters to persuade, the underlying fundamentals of in the polls continue to hold static.
source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Sunday, November 04, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows the race tied with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. See daily tracking history.
These figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Obama leads among those who have already voted, while Romney leads among those deemed likely to vote. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans. Both candidates do well within their own party, while Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.
One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate. In 2008, approximately 74% of voters were white. The Obama campaign has argued that this will fall a couple of percentage points in 2012 with an increase in minority voting. Others have noted the increased enthusiasm among white voters and the decreased enthusiasm among Hispanic voters and suggest that white voters might make up a slightly larger share of the electorate this time around. It is significant because Romney attracts 58% of the white vote, while Obama has a huge lead among non-white voters.
If the white turnout increases on Election Day, it will be very difficult for the president to win. If it decreases, it will be very difficult for him to lose. Rasmussen Reports currently estimates that white turnout will be similar to the 2008 totals. Black voters, however, are far more likely to have voted already than any other segment of the electorate.
Just over one-out-of-four Americans (27%) say the upcoming election has negatively affected their personal relationship with a friend or family member.
“It’s somewhat surprising that heading into the final weekend of the election season, we are unable to confidently project who is likely to win the White House,” Scott Rasmussen writes in his latest weekly newspaper column. “But the race for the White House remains close because of the economy. Most Americans do not feel better off than they were four years ago, but most are not feeling worse off either.”
If you’d like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.
