UPDATE: 4-26-2013 - Syrians Attacked With Chemical Weapons. Intelligence of Stockpiling Known Months Ago.

UPDATE:4-26-2013

Krauthammer On Syria: "What's At Stake Here Is Whether Anything This President Now Says Is Believable"

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER: Well, I think what’s really important here is that what’s at stake is not the trajectory of the Syrian war. There’s something else at stake here, and that’s America’s word. 

Whatever Obama does, I don’t think he’ll do anything. He’ll try to minimize this. He’ll try to caveat himself out of this. But even if he does act, it’ll be a minor act. It’s not going to have any effect on what happens in Syria.

What’s at stake here is whether anything that this president now says is believable around the world. When you say 'red line' and you make the red line way out there -- it’s not the slaughter of 80,000 of your own people; it’s the use of chemical weapons -- and then you get definitive evidence that it has been used and you don’t do anything, then your word means nothing. 

And the one thing America’s had for the last 60 years is the power and the belief in the world that when it says 'x,' it will do 'x.' And I think that’s really what the problem is here. I’m wondering whether this Administration understands how much of its word is at stake. (Special Report, April 25, 2013)

SOURCE: http://www.realclearpolitics.com

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UPDATE:4-25-2013

White House: We don’t know if Syria red line has been crossed

Posted By Josh Rogin  Thursday, April 25, 2013

Despite a new U.S. intelligence community assessment that the Syrian regime likely used chemical weapons on its own people, the White House is still waiting for more evidence before deciding whether Bashar al-Assad has crossed President Barack Obama's "red line."

The White House scrambled Thursday to set up a conference call with reporters following Thursday morning's news that the U.S. intelligence community has concluded with varying levels of confidence that there has been small-scale use of sarin, a deadly nerve gas, inside Syria, most likely by the Syrian regime. Secretary of State John Kerry told lawmakers Thursday that the assessment referenced two instances of chemical weapons use in Syria.

A senior White House official said on the conference call that the intelligence community's assessment was not enough to determine that President Obama's red line regarding U.S. intervention in Syria has been crossed.

"We are continuing to do further work to establish a strong, firm, evidentiary basis to determine whether or not the red line has been crossed," the official said. "If we make a determination that the red line has been crossed... what we will be doing is consulting with friends and allies as to the next steps forward."

The official indirectly referenced the flawed intelligence assessments about Saddam Hussein's programs of weapons of mass destruction in the lead up to the Iraq war as justification for caution.

"It is crucial, given our own history with intelligence assessments, including intelligence assessments on weapons of mass destruction... that we are able to present evidence that is airtight," the official said. "It is absolutely the case that the president's red line is the use of chemical weapons or the transfer of chemical weapons to terrorist groups. Our standard of evidence has to build on these intelligence assessments. We want to continue to investigate."

The Obama administration is keeping all options on the table, but the official declined to say what options might be considered if and when it is confirmed that the president's red line has been crossed. The official also declined to identify the locations or dates of the two alleged uses of chemical weapons in Syria, but acknowledged that a March incident in Aleppo had spurred the United States to press for a fuller investigation.

"We will constantly have prepared contingency planning for different scenarios within Syria," the official said. "What the Assad regime needs to know is that we are watching this incredibly closely."

The White House's conclusion that not enough evidence exists to confirm that the Syrian regime has crossed Obama's red line was contradicted Thursday by Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein(D-CA), the chairwoman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

 "It is clear that ‘red lines' have been crossed and action must be taken to prevent larger scale use," she said in a statement. "Syria has the ability to kill tens of thousands with its chemical weapons. The world must come together to prevent this by unified action which results in the secure containment of Syria's significant stockpile of chemical weapons."

The original announcement about the new intelligence community assessment on Syrian chemical weapons came in statements Thursday from Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and in a letter from the White House to several senators delivered Thursday morning during an otherwise classified briefing.

"Our intelligence community does asses with varying degrees of confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent Sarin,"Miguel Rodriguez, the director of the White House office of legislative affairs, wrote in the letter.

SOURCE: http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

SOURCE: http://www.scribd.com......................................................................................................

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First...let me state that we knew that the stockpiling of weapons, including chemical weapons was known through HUMINT (human intelligence) and other sources of intelligence by global national communities.  As we know, much of this has been helped along by Russia and Iran.  The blame is on the global nations, including the U.S. the have known about this and have not done anything to stop it.  

President Obama said in August that 

"I want to make it absolutely clear to Assad and those under his command -- the world is watching" "The use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable. And if you make the tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences and you will be held accountable," he said.Obama has previously warned that any use of chemical weapons by Syria in its civil war would be crossing a "red line" that would prompt a swift U.S. response. source: here

Here is when there was warning that the bombs were being made ready to launch against the rebels...

Intell on Syria's chemical weapons sparked international action to stop 'bomb preparation'

Jorge Benitez | January 08, 2013

From Eric Schmitt and David E. Sanger, New York Times:  In the last days of November, Israel’s top military commanders called the Pentagon to discuss troubling intelligence that was showing up on satellite imagery: Syrian troops appeared to be mixing chemicals at two storage sites, probably the deadly nerve gas sarin, and filling dozens of 500-pounds bombs that could be loaded on airplanes.

Within hours President Obama was notified, and the alarm grew over the weekend, as the munitions were loaded onto vehicles near Syrian air bases. In briefings, administration officials were told that if Syria’s increasingly desperate president, Bashar al-Assad, ordered the weapons to be used, they could be airborne in less than two hours — too fast for the United States to act, in all likelihood.

What followed next, officials said, was a remarkable show of international cooperation over a civil war in which the United States, Arab states, Russia and China have almost never agreed on a common course of action.

The combination of a public warning by Mr. Obama and more sharply worded private messages sent to the Syrian leader and his military commanders through Russia and others, including Iraq, Turkey and possibly Jordan, stopped the chemical mixing and the bomb preparation. A week later Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said the worst fears were over — for the time being. . . .

“I think the Russians understood this is the one thing that could get us to intervene in the war,” one senior defense official said last week. “What Assad understood, and whether that understanding changes if he gets cornered in the next few months, that’s anyone’s guess. . . .”

The head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, the BND, warned in a confidential assessment last month that the weapons could now be deployed four to six hours after orders were issued, and that Mr. Assad had a special adviser at his side who oversaw control of the weapons, the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel reported. Some American and other allied officials, however, said in interviews that the sarin-laden bombs could be loaded on planes and airborne in less than two hours. . . .

How the United States and Israel, along with Arab states, would respond remains a mystery. American and allied officials have talked vaguely of having developed “contingency plans” in case they decided to intervene in an effort to neutralize the chemical weapons, a task that the Pentagon estimates would require upward of 75,000 troops. But there have been no evident signs of preparations for any such effort.

The United States military has quietly sent a task force of more than 150 planners and other specialists to Jordan to help the armed forces there, among other things, prepare for the possibility that Syria will lose control of its chemical weapons. . . .

Syria’s chemical weapons are under the control of a secretive Syrian air force organization called Unit 450, a highly vetted outfit that is deemed one of the most loyal to the Assad government given the importance of the weapons in its custody.

American officials said that some of the back-channel messages in recent weeks were directed at the commanders of this unit, warning them — as Mr. Obama warned Mr. Assad on Dec. 3 — that they would be held personally responsible if the government used its chemical weapons.

Asked about these communications and whether they have been successful, an American intelligence official said only, “The topic is extremely sensitive, and public discussion, even on background, will be problematic.”   (graphic: Best Thinking)

source: http://www.acus.org/natosource/intell-syrias-chemical-weapons-sparked-international-action-stop-bomb-preparation

Is it obvious to anyone else that the video below from approximately a day ago was a staged video to cover our butts because we knew of what was going to happen today with the attack on the Syrian people with the use of chemical weapons?!

Here are are some of the articles about what has happened divided by videos that were about the chemical warfare issue from months ago...

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UK says Syria chemical weapons use would need "serious response"

LONDON | Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:04am EDT

(Reuters) - Britain said on Tuesday it was aware of media reports about a chemical weapons attack in Syria, adding that the use or proliferation of chemical weapons there would demand a serious response from the international community.

"The UK is clear that the use or proliferation of chemical weapons would demand a serious response from the international community and force us to revisit our approach so far," a Foreign Office spokeswoman said.

source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/19/us-britain-syria-chemical-idUSBRE92I0J820130319

Above From  7-2012   

Despite the Confirmation of Biological Weapons, the International Community Still Can’t Do Anything 

Though Syria’s arsenal of chemical weapons has been an open secret for the past 4 decades, the Assad’s regime’s announcement is a direct confirmation that Syria does indeed have a chemical weapons arsenal at their disposal.  The announcement targeted the international community, stating that if any foreign intervention in Syria’s civil war would be met with the deployment of chemical weapons.  The weapons include mustard and sarin gases, as well as cyanide, and are capable of being deployed by aircraft, surface-to-air missiles and rockets.  The announcement has sparked renewed animosity towards the regime, as well as towards the eastern powers that still persist in supporting the Assad regime, such as Russia and China.  Though the announcement does spark another international dilemma to be confronted if the community were to begin renewed intervention-talks, it does not present any new looming threat for the opposition groups still fighting throughout the Syrian country. 

'Suffocating in the streets': Chemical weapons attack reported in Syria

George Ourfalian / Reuters

Residents and medics transport a wounded Syrian army soldier to hospital Tuesday after heavy fighting in Aleppo province during which both rebels and government forces said a chemical weapon was used.

By Erika Solomon and Dominic Evans, Reuters

Syria's government and rebels accused each other of launching a deadly chemical attack near the northern city of Aleppo on Tuesday in what would, if confirmed, be the first use of such weapons in the two-year-old conflict. 

Syria's state news agency SANA said the rebels had launched a missile, while the rebels said the government had fired a long-range missile with "chemical agents."

"Terrorists fired a rocket containing chemical substances in the Khan al-Assal area of rural Aleppo," SANA said.

A Reuters photographer visited two hospitals and saw people with breathing problems, who told him that they saw people dying in the streets and that the air smelled strongly of chlorine.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a human rights monitoring group with a network of sources on the ground, said 26 people were killed in a "rocket attack" but it could neither confirm nor deny reports of chemical weapons.

U.S. President Barack Obama, who has resisted overt military intervention in Syria's civil war, has previously warned Syria's President Bashar Assad that any use of chemical weapons would be a "red line".

Syria's Information Minister Omran al-Zoabi put the death toll at 16 and said 86 people were wounded, most of them critically.

In a televised news conference, he said the country's armed forces would never use internationally banned weapons. "Syria's army leadership has stressed this before and we say it again, if we had chemical weapons we would never use them due to moral, humanitarian and political reasons," Zoabi said.

read more at http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/19/17370550-suffocating-in-the-streets-chemical-weapons-attack-reported-in-syria?lite

Cagle Cartoons

Views: 213

Above Cartoon Published on Jul 24, 2012 at 8:12 AM PDT

Damascus, rebels trade charges on "chemical attack"

BEIRUT - Syria's government and rebels accused each other of launching a deadly chemical attack near the northern city of Aleppo on Tuesday in what would, if confirmed, be the first use of such weapons in the two-year-old conflict.

Syria's information minister said rebels had fired a rocket carrying chemical agents that killed 16 people and wounded 86. State television said later the death toll had risen to 25.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the conflict using a network of contacts in Syria, put the number of dead at 26, including 16 soldiers.

A Reuters photographer said victims he had visited in Aleppo hospitals were suffering breathing problems and that people had said they could smell chlorine after the attack.

"I saw mostly women and children," said the photographer, who cannot be named for his own safety.

"They said that people were suffocating in the streets and the air smelt strongly of chlorine."

The photographer quoted victims he met at the University of Aleppo hospital and the al-Rajaa hospital as saying: "People were dying in the streets and in their houses."

President Bashar al-Assad, battling a two-year-old uprising against his rule, is widely believed to have a chemical arsenal.

Syrian officials have neither confirmed nor denied this, but have said that if it existed it would be used to defend against foreign aggression, not against Syrians. There have been no previous reports of chemical weapons in the hands of insurgents.

Information Minister Omran al-Zoabi said rebels fired a rocket with chemical weapons at the town of Khan al-Assal, southwest of Aleppo, in what he called a "dangerous escalation".

He said the rocket had been launched from Aleppo's southeastern district of Nairab, part of which is rebel-held.

source: Reuters

Chemical Weapons In Syria. Will They Be Used By The Assad Regime Or The Rebels?

Syria chemical weapons scare: Is Assad threatening to use them, or lose them? 

A report suggests that Syria has ramped up activity at chemical-weapons sites. But President Bashar al-Assad might simply be sending a message to the international community.

By Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer / December 6, 2012

• 

NATO foreign ministers meet at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels Tuesday, when they agreed to send Patriot missiles to beef up Turkey's air defenses and calm Turkey's fears that it could come under missile attack, possibly with chemical weapons, from Syria.

Yves Herman/Reuters

• In Pictures: Reaching a critical juncture in Syria

Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons stems in part from worries that an increasingly desperate President Bashar al-Assad might use them against advancing rebel forces in the country’s 21-month-old civil war.
read more at http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2012/1206/Syria-chemical-weapons-scare-Is-Assad-threatening-to-use-them-or-lose-them-video

Syria 'planning chemical weapons'

Demonstrators pose with Syrian opposition flags at the site of buildings badly damaged by fire from a Syrian air force fighter jet. Photograph: Kenan Al-Derani/Shaam News/Reuters

British foreign secretary William Hague said today he had seen “some evidence” that Syria is preparing to use chemical weapons against rebels.

Mr Hague declined to give details of the intelligence, but again warned that Bashar Assad’s regime would face action if they were deployed.

American satellites and other tools have reportedly detected increased activity at several chemical weapons depots in Syria.

At least one military base is also said to have been ordered to begin combining components of Sarin nerve gas to make it ready to use.

The Syrian regime has denied any plans to use chemical weapons against it own people.

Speaking to the BBC at a security conference in the Gulf this morning, Mr Hague was asked whether he had seen proof that Syria was preparing such weapons.

“We have seen some evidence of that,” he said. “We and the US, as I said in parliament this week, have seen some evidence of that and that is why we have issued strong warnings about it. We have done so directly to the Syrian regime.”

Pressed on what kind of evidence he had seen, Mr Hague replied: “We absolutely cannot be specific about that because clearly those are intelligence sources that these things come from. But we have seen enough evidence to know that they need a warning and they have received that warning.”

Amid speculation that the regime could be targeted with airstrikes, Mr Hague said the use of chemical weapons would be a “major change in situation”.

source: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/1208/breaking13.html

Syria's Sarin, Chemical Weapons: FAQ

By Daniel J. DeNoon, Reviewed by Louise Chang, MD

WebMD Medical News

Dec. 6, 2012 — 

Syria's military is reported to be prepared to use sarin, a potent nerve gas, posing an obvious threat to Syrian civilians -- and to the rest of the world.

What is sarin? What other chemical weapons are in Syria's arsenal? Might the weapons fall into the wrong hands? See below for answers to these and other questions posed by this troubling development.

What Is Sarin?

Sarin, also known as GB, is a man-made nerve gas not found in nature. It's one of the most deadly and fastest-acting chemical weapons known to man.

Developed by a German chemist in 1938, sarin was too dangerous for its intended use as a pesticide. The Nazis developed sarin into a chemical weapon, but never used it.

Iraq is thought to have deployed sarin weapons during the Iran-Iraq war. Iraq also used sarin in an attack on its own Kurdish population. It was used in the subways of Japan in a domestic terrorist attack by an apocalyptic cult.

How Does Sarin Harm People?

Sarin is a close relative of organophosphate bug-killers, but is far more powerful. On humans, it has much the same effect as these pesticides have on bugs.

According to the CDC, sarin blocks the chemical "off switch" for glands and muscles. Muscles quickly fail, and a person who gets a lethal dose stops being able to breathe.

Chemical weapons typically use aerosolized sarin, which has no odor or color. People exposed to the vapor, or who get a drop or two of liquid sarin on their skin, die within minutes to 18 hours. Sarin could also be used to poison water or food.

Sarin evaporates quickly. Clothing contaminated with sarin gives off deadly fumes for about 30 minutes, posing a risk to rescue workers and medical personnel.

Why Worry About Syria's Sarin?

Leonard Spector, deputy director of the nonprofit James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, in 2011 reported that the U.S. government believes Syria has a large stockpile of chemical agents. These agents range from mustard gas -- infamously used during World War I trench warfare -- to sarin and an even more deadly nerve gas called VX.

Sarin is too corrosive and too dangerous to store in its active form. Weapons usually mix the final two sarin ingredients just before or during firing. News reports suggest the Syrian military already has begun mixing active sarin bombs to be loaded onto warplanes.

Use of such weapons would be an awful abuse of human rights. But that's not the only threat.

Spector says Syria has four or five chemical weapons plants near Damascus, Hama, Latakia, and Aleppo. There's already heavy fighting in those areas. There's a risk that these weapons might fall into the hands of criminals or terrorist organizations, or that Syria might ship them to nations more likely to use them than the Syrians had been.

Journalist Elaine M. Grossman, writing for Global Security Newswire, says a highly placed defense expert told her that the U.S. government has "essentially about 10 plans now in the works" for dealing with various possible scenarios. Those plans, she notes, are highly classified.

What Is VX?

VX, invented by a British chemist in the early 1950s, is a nerve gas even more deadly than sarin. Like sarin, it is tasteless and odorless. Unlike sarin, it is thick and oily. It evaporates only as quickly as motor oil and thus can remain in the environment for months.

What Are the Symptoms of Sarin and VX Poisoning?

The first signs of poisoning with sarin or VX are a runny nose and pinpoint pupils. Those who do not get an immediately lethal dose will have trouble breathing, fluid in the lungs, sweating, and muscle twitching.

There are nervous system effects, such as fatigue, irritability, nervousness, and impaired memory. Survivors may have these symptoms six weeks after recovery from other symptoms.

What Is the Treatment for Sarin and VX Poisoning?

There are antidotes for nerve gas poisoning with sarin or VX: atropine and pralidoxime chloride. These antidotes must be injected very soon after poisoning occurs.

People exposed to sarin or VX can protect themselves by quickly moving to an area where there is fresh air. Both sarin and VX are heavier than air and settle in low-lying areas. So if outdoors, a person should move immediately to the highest ground possible. If sarin is released within a building, leave the building immediately.

After any sarin or VX exposure, it's important to remove all clothing and wash all skin areas with soap and water. Clothing that must be pulled over the head should be cut off. All clothing should be double bagged in plastic bags and left for professional removal.

Treat eye exposure -- symptoms are burning or blurred vision -- by flushing with fresh water for 10 to 15 minutes.

If sarin or VX is swallowed, do not induce vomiting, and do not give fluids to drink.

In all cases of exposure to nerve gas, seek immediate emergency medical care.

SOURCES: CDC web site: "Facts About Sarin," "Facts About VX."Global Security Newswire: "U.S. Anxiously Shaping Contingency Options for Syrian Chemical Arsenal."Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) web site.New Yorker web site: "The Syrian Sarin Threat."Spector, L. Foreign Policy, Aug. 23, 2011.Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATDSR) web site, "Nerve Agents."CNN web site: "Syria Mixing Chemical Warfare Agents, U.S. Official."

source: http://www.ktvu.com/news/lifestyles/health/syrias-sarin-chemical-weapons-faq/nTQPx/

Syria warns rebels may use chemical weapons

Sunday, December 09, 2012 

DAMASCUS: Syria warned on Saturday that rebels could use chemical weapons in their fight against President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, and insisted that the regime will never unleash such arms on its own people.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague, however, said there was evidence the Damascus government could actually employ chemical weapons stocks in the conflict which a rights group says has killed at least 42,000 people in nearly 21 months. “Terrorist groups may resort to using chemical weapons against the Syrian people... after having gained control of a toxic chlorine factory” east of Aleppo, the foreign ministry said, using the government term for rebel groups.

It added that Damascus would never use such weapons against its own people. The ministry was believed to be referring to the Syrian-Saudi Chemicals Company (SYSACCO) factory near Safira, which was taken over earlier this week by militants from the jihadist Al-Nusra Front. Syria “is defending its people against terrorism, which is supported by known countries, with the United States at the forefront,” the ministry said.

Global concerns over Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles grew after US officials this week privately said the regime had begun mixing precursor chemicals that could be used for the lethal nerve agent sarin. Some media reports said that the substance had been loaded into bombs for warplanes.

Hague said on Saturday there was evidence Syrian government forces could use chemical weapons against the insurgency.

“We are extremely concerned about the stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, and we are also concerned about evidence during the last couple of weeks that the regime could use them,” he told reporters in Manama on the sidelines of a security conference.

Hague said Britain had joined the United States in delivering a strong message to Assad’s government and that the global community had “contingency plans concerning chemical weapons but will not disclose them.” He cited several “dangerous scenarios,” including their “use by the regime” or falling into the hands “of other people.”

Washington has said the use of chemical weapons would be a red line but that it fears rebel battlefield advances could prompt the regime to use them, or that stocks could fall into the hands of groups hostile to the US and its allies.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon said on Friday said it would be an “outrageous crime” if the regime used chemical weapons against the revolt. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the global chemical weapons watchdog, asked Damascus to sign up to a convention banning their use, citing “serious concerns” that for the first time in the agreement’s history they might be used.

The opposition Syrian National Council said even neighbouring countries would not be spared if such weapons were used.

“We ask the countries of the world to act before disaster hits, not after,” SNC chief George Sabras said.

source: http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-1-147321-Syria-warns-rebels-may-use-chemical-weapons

Defining al Qaeda

By Scott Stewart

The Obama administration's efforts to counter the threat posed by al Qaeda and the wider jihadist movement have been a contentious topic in the U.S. presidential race. Political rhetoric abounds on both sides; administration officials claim that al Qaeda has been seriously crippled, while some critics of the administration allege that the group is stronger than ever. As with most political rhetoric, both claims bear elements of truth, but the truth depends largely on how al Qaeda and jihadism are defined. Unfortunately, politicians and the media tend to define al Qaeda loosely and incorrectly.

The jihadist threat will persist regardless of who is elected president, so understanding the actors involved is critical. But a true understanding of those actors requires taxonomical acuity. It seems worthwhile, then, to revisit Stratfor's definitions of al Qaeda and the wider jihadist movement.

A Network of Networks

Al Qaeda, the group established by Osama bin Laden and his colleagues, was never very large -- there were never more than a few hundred actual members. We often refer to this group, now led by Ayman al-Zawahiri, as the al Qaeda core or al Qaeda prime. While the group's founders trained tens of thousands of men at their camps in Afghanistan and Sudan, they initially viewed themselves as a vanguard organization working with kindred groups to facilitate the jihad they believed was necessary to establish a global Islamic caliphate. Most of the men trained at al Qaeda camps were members of other organizations or were grassroots jihadists. The majority of them received basic paramilitary training, and only a select few were invited to receive additional training in terrorist tradecraft skills such as surveillance, document forgery and bombmaking. Of this select group, only a few men were invited to join the al Qaeda core organization.

Bin Laden envisioned another purpose for al Qaeda: leading the charge against corrupt rulers in the Muslim world and against the United States, which he believed supported corrupt Muslim rulers. Al Qaeda sought to excise the United States from the Muslim world in much the same way that Hezbollah drove U.S. forces out of Lebanon and Somalia forced the U.S. withdrawal from Mogadishu.

Al Qaeda became a network of networks -- a trait demonstrated not only by its training methods but also in bin Laden's rhetoric. For example, bin Laden's 1998 "World Islamic Front" statement, which declared jihad against Jews and Crusaders, was signed by al-Zawahiri (who at the time was leading the Egyptian Islamic Jihad) and leaders of other groups, including the Egyptian Islamic Group, Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Pakistan and the Jihad Movement of Bangladesh.

Following the 9/11 attacks, the United States applied against the al Qaeda core the full pressure of its five counterterrorism levers: intelligence, military, law enforcement, diplomacy and financial sanctions. As a result, many al Qaeda members, eventually including bin Laden, were captured or killed and their assets were frozen. Such measures have ensured that the group remains small for operational security concerns. The remaining members of the group mostly are lying low in Pakistan near the Afghan border, and their isolation there has severely degraded their ability to conduct attacks. The al Qaeda core is now relegated to producing propaganda for guidance and inspiration for other jihadist elements. Despite the disproportionate amount of media attention given to statements from al-Zawahiri and Adam Gadahn, the al Qaeda core constitutes only a very small part of the larger jihadist movement. In fact, it has not conducted a successful terrorist attack in years.

However, the core group has not been destroyed. It could regenerate if the United States eased its pressure, but we believe that will be difficult given the loss of the charismatic bin Laden and his replacement by the irascible al-Zawahiri.

In any case, the jihadist movement transcends the al Qaeda core. In fact, Stratfor for years published an annual forecast of al Qaeda, but beginning in 2009, we intentionally changed the title of the forecast to reflect the isolation and marginalization of the al Qaeda core and the ascendance of other jihadist actors. We believed our analysis needed to focus less on the al Qaeda core and more on the truly active and significant elements of the jihadist movement, including regional groups that have adopted the al Qaeda name and the array of grassroots jihadists.

Franchises and Grassroots

An element of the jihadist movement that is often loosely referred to as al Qaeda is the worldwide network of local or regional militant groups that have assumed al Qaeda's name or ideology. In many cases, the relationships between the leadership of these groups and the al Qaeda core began in the 1980s and 1990s.

Some groups have publicly claimed allegiance to the al Qaeda core, becoming what we refer to as franchise groups. These groups include al Qaeda in Iraq, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Even though these franchises bear the al Qaeda name, they are locally owned and operated. This means that the local commanders have significant latitude in how closely they follow the guidance and philosophy of the al Qaeda core.

Some franchise group leaders, such as AQAP's Nasir al-Wahayshi, maintain strong relationships with the al Qaeda core and are very closely aligned with the core's philosophy. Other leaders, such as Abu Musab Abd al-Wadoud of AQIM, are more distanced. In fact, AQIM has seen severe internal fighting over these doctrinal issues, and several former leaders of Algeria's Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat left the group because of this conflict. Further, it is widely believed that the death of Somali al Qaeda leader Fazul Abdullah Mohammed was arranged by leaders of Somali jihadist group al Shabaab, which he had criticized sharply.

The last and broadest element of the global jihadist movement often referred to as al Qaeda is what Stratfor refers to as grassroots jihadists. These are individuals or small cells of individuals that are inspired by the al Qaeda core -- or increasingly, by its franchise groups -- but that may have little or no actual connection to these groups. Some grassroots jihadists travel to places such as Pakistan or Yemen to receive training from the franchise groups. Other grassroots militants have no direct contact with other jihadist elements.

The core, the franchises and the grassroots jihadists are often interchangeably referred to as al Qaeda, but there are important differences among these actors that need to be recognized.

Important Distinctions

There are some other important distinctions that inform our terminology and our analysis. Not all jihadists are linked to al Qaeda, and not all militant Islamists are jihadists. Islamists are those who believe society is best governed by Islamic law, or Sharia. Militant Islamists are those who advocate the use of force to establish Sharia. Militant Islamists are found in both Islamic sects. Al Qaeda is a Sunni militant Islamist group, but Hezbollah is a Shiite militant Islamist group. Moreover, not all militant Muslims are Islamists. Some take up arms for tribal, territorial, ethnic or nationalistic reasons, or for a combination of reasons.

In places such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya and northern Mali, several militant groups are fighting foreign forces, their government or each other -- and sometimes all of the above. Some of these groups are jihadists, some are tribal militias, some are brigands and smugglers, and others are nationalists. Identifying, sorting and classifying these groups can be very difficult, and sometimes alliances shift or overlap. For example, Yemen's southern separatists will sometimes work with tribal militias or AQAP to fight against the government; other times, they fight against these would-be allies. We have seen similar dynamics in northern Mali among groups such as AQIM, Ansar Dine, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa, various Tuareg groups and other tribal militias in the region.

Taxonomy becomes even more difficult when a group uses multiple names, or when multiple groups share a name. Groups adopt different names for discretion, confusion or public relations purposes. AQAP called itself Ansar al-Shariah during its fight to take over cities in southern Yemen and to govern the territory. But radical cleric Abu Hamza al-Masri, who was arrested in the United Kingdom in 2004 and extradited to the United States in 2012, has long led a movement likewise called Ansar al-Shariah. Even the Libyan jihadist militia that attacked the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi uses the same name. But just because these groups share a name, and just because members or leaders of the groups know each other, does not necessarily mean that they are chapters of the same group or network of groups, or that they even subscribe to the same ideology. 

Read more: Defining al Qaeda | Stratfor 

NYPD On Alert for Possible Iran Terror Attack.

NYPD chief: City on alert for Iran terror

Commissioner Raymond Kelly says New York City's police force placed on high alert as concerns mount over possible retaliation by Tehran, Hezbollah over tightening international sanctions

New York City's police commissioner said Wednesday that a potential retaliatory attack on New York City by Iran is an ongoing concern for the NYPD.

Commissioner Raymond Kelly spoke at the NYPD Shield Anti-Terrorism Conference.

According to the New York Post, Kelly said that a possible conflict between Iran and Israel was of concern to the law enforcement agency due to the city's large Jewish population.

"We’ve been concerned about Iran for a while, and I think the history of those events throughout the world since January give us cause for concern," he said.

On high alert. NYPD (Photo: AP) 

"Obviously if there's any action involving Israel and Iran we have to be very cognizant of the potential of retaliation here in New York City," Kelly was quoted by the New York Post as saying.

Lt. Kevin Yorke of the NYPD's Intelligence Division also addressed the conference, saying that one of the issues the NYPD is mostly concerned about is the potential for a retaliation attack on New York City by Iran or Hezbollah.

source here

NYPD on alert for Iran terror

• By JESSICA SIMEONE
• Last Updated: 3:44 AM, October 10, 2012
• Posted: 2:32 AM, October 10, 2012

A terror attack sponsored by Iran is an ongoing concern for the NYPD, Commissioner Ray Kelly revealed yesterday.

“We’ve been concerned about Iran for a while, and I think the history of those events throughout the world since January give us cause for concern,” Kelly said during an anti-terror conference called NYPD SHIELD.

Kelly also said that a possible conflict between Iran and Israel is a particular area of concern, given New York City’s large Jewish population.

One issue is the potential for a retaliation attack on New York City by Iran and Hezbollah, said NYPD Lt. Kevin Yorke of the Intelligence Division.

“Within the last year, we’ve seen a worldwide increase in incidents involving the stockpiling of explosives, the surveillance of targets, and a number of very significant plots and attacks,” Yorke said.

That increase in activity is in direct relation to Iran’s nuclear-weapons program and the tension surrounding it, Yorke said.

“Obviously if there’s any action involving Israel and Iran we have to be very cognizant of the potential of retaliation here in New York City,” Kelly said.

NYPD SHIELD is a public-private partnership that provides counterterrorism training in an effort to protect New York City from terrorist attacks.

source: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/nypd_on_alert_for_iran_terror_uEK4d0J4DPX2kVf251LZUI

'Hezbollah has 300 operatives in NYC' US officials debate virulence of Hezbollah's threat on US soil as NYPD says Hezbollah's infrastructure in the Big Apple substantial Yitzhak Benhorin, Reuters WASHINGTON – A recent report by the House of Representatives Committee on Homeland Security states that there are hundreds, perhaps even thousands, people he described as "Iranian and Hezbollah terrorists" in the United States. An alarming part of the officials' assessments focuses on the apparent surveillance missions that Iranian diplomats and possible Hezbollah operatives have been seen conducting at sensitive targets such as New York City's subways and bridges, and at nuclear power plants and tunnels elsewhere in the United States in the past 10 years At the same time, US officials caution that Hezbollah, a Shiite militia based in Lebanon, has largely avoided attacking US targets since it carried out mass-casualty bombings in the 1980s against the US Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut. One reason may be that it does not want to endanger its lucrative North American fund-raising operations. The renewed focus on Hezbollah – which US counter-terrorism officials regard as the most potent and disciplined of Islamic militant groups, even more so than al-Qaeda – comes amid a growing confrontation over Iran's nuclear program. An Israeli or US strike on Iran's nuclear sites could prompt Hezbollah to change strategy, moving from surveillance and fund-raising in North America to launching retaliatory attacks on either country, several US officials said. Israel, while acknowledging the likelihood of retaliation by Iran or its agents, has sometimes downplayed the risk of a broader conflict. Iranian-inspired surveillance missions in the United States have been scattered over a period of years. But, when combined with a handful of recent attacks or plots around the world, they have contributed to an assessment within the US government that considerable violence directed against US targets – at overseas installations or businesses, or at American soil – could follow any strike on Iran's nuclear program. Every NYC landmark a target? (Photo: Anat Lev-Adler) US intelligence and law enforcement officials, along with private experts, say there is little doubt Hezbollah has an extensive network of supporters, fund-raisers and potential operatives in the United States. 'Thousands of sympathizers' A law enforcement official said that the New York Police Department, whose monitoring of Muslim communities has prompted political controversy, believes that between 200 and 300 Hezbollah sympathizers live in New York City. Between 10 and 20 of those are relatives of Hezbollah leaders or fighters who were killed in action, said the official. The NYPD's knowledge of Hezbollah's infrastructure is sufficiently detailed that it has identified three Lebanese towns, Bint Jbeil, Yanoun and Yatar, to which suspected sympathizers of the group have ties. At least a handful of people in New York connected with Hezbollah have also undergone military training in Lebanon, the official said. A preliminary Homeland Security report said that pinpointing the number of Hezbollah operatives inside the United States was difficult because of the group's operational security. The report nonetheless cited the estimates of "some officials" that the group "likely" has "several thousand sympathetic donors" in the United States as well as "hundreds" of operatives. Ready and willing? (Photo: AP) But other officials said there was a big difference between a Hezbollah "supporter" and someone who would be willing to engage in violent activity. The officials said such distinctions have been blurred in public discussions about the domestic threat the group allegedly poses. Over the years, US federal authorities have brought numerous criminal cases against alleged Hezbollah operatives, most of them related to fund-raising or other support activity rather than plotting against US targets. The access to potential funding sources is one reason why Hezbollah has avoided targeting the United States or its interests, experts say. source: here