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Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Massive flooding through Germany, Poland, Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Austria

Surging rivers threaten cities in Czech Republic, Germany

By Laura Smith-Spark, Ivana Kottasova andBen Brumfield, CNN
updated 9:01 AM EDT, Wed June 5, 2013

A woman cleans mud from the footpath in front of her house following flooding along the Inn River in Schaerding, Austria, on Wednesday, June 5. Rising rivers menaced swaths of Germany, the Czech Republic and Austria on Tuesday, as floodwaters inundated historic cities and forced mass evacuations of low-lying areas.

(CNN) -- Parts of the Czech Republic and Germany braced for flooding Wednesday as surging rivers threatened more cities.

The floods are thought to be the worst since August 2002, when parts of Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia, Russia and Romania were affected.

Eight people have died as a result of this week's flooding in the Czech Republic, fire service spokeswoman Nicole Zaoralova said.

"The situation is still critical in the city of Usti," she said. "We are expecting the situation on the River Labe (Elbe) in the northern Bohemia region of Ustecko to become worse during the day. The river has not peaked yet, and the levels are rising."

"The situation in the next few days will obviously depend on the current weather situation. As of the moment, more heavy rains are forecast for the weekend."

The Elbe crosses the border into the eastern German state of Saxony soon after it passes through Usti nad Labem, so German cities downstream such as Dresden are also expecting the surge to arrive.

The Czech fire service is moving heavy equipment to regions that are still at risk, Zaoralova said.

In other areas in southern Bohemia, the focus is shifting to cleaning up, with equipment deployed to clear mud, she said.

More than 19,000 people have been evacuated from their homes, Zaoralova said.
Close to 23,000 firefighters, including volunteers, have been deployed across the Czech Republic so far, she said.

The Vltava River, which flows through the historic capital, Prague, has peaked there, but the fire service is monitoring for large debris that could damage landmarks such as the centuries-old Charles Bridge.

An excavator has been stationed on the bridge, which is much loved by tourists and locals, to ward off damaging wreckage.

Flood waters are starting to recede in some low-lying parts of the city.

Volunteer efforts

Saxony in eastern Germany is the most vulnerable area Wednesday, after river levels dropped slightly in much of Bavaria, farther south.

Flood warnings are in place for areas around the rivers Elbe, Lausitzer Neisse, Mulde, tributaries of the upper Elbe, Black Elster, Spree and White Elster, according to the German meteorological service.
Danny Arguello, an international business student in Dresden, told CNN iReport that he was impressed by the outpouring of volunteer support as residents try to protect the city.

As the rising Elbe River covers roads and sidewalks, groups of volunteers organized through Facebook are cooking food, moving sandbags and helping with other flood preparations, he said.
"The participation around the whole town is just amazing," he said.

In Bavaria, the Danube River has topped flood defenses downstream from Deggendorf. And in Vilshofen, it is about 125 centimeters (4 feet) above the highest flood stage, it said.

Water levels remain extremely high on the Danube between Regensburg and Passau, in southern Bavaria, the meteorological service said.

In Passau, where the Danube River is joined by two other rivers, water levels topped a 500-year-old record Tuesday.

At least two men are reported to have died in Germany's southwestern state of Baden-Wuerttemberg.
A fireman died Saturday after suffering a heart attack while responding to flooding in Wilhelmsdorf, according to the state's Interior Ministry.

read more at CNN

Germany's Dresden expects peak in flooding

Floods Across Central Europe:
Heavy rains swelled major rivers in Germany, the Czech Republic and Austria causing widespread destruction. 

By MELISSA EDDY

Published: June 5, 2013

PIRNA, Germany — Officials in eastern Germany’s river cities and towns on Wednesday urged citizens in vulnerable areas to evacuate their homes as the Elbe River and its tributaries swelled ever higher, amid some of the worst flooding that some regions have seen in centuries.

As Germany battles severe flooding in parts of the country, the cost of the damage is hitting Europe's biggest economy just as it has barely overcome a harsh winter that has driven it to the brink of recession.

In the first quarter of 2013, German Gross Domestic Product grew by just 0.1 percent. The country just managed to avoid a recession, which is defined as two successive quarters of economic contraction.

Much of the hope for economic recovery lies with key economic indicators which predict accelerating growth in the coming months.

However, economists are becoming more and more skeptical about the country's growth outlook as they fear that the much-vaunted spring upswing might drown in the deluge.

"As the flood levels rose, so did the problems for German businesses," says Alexander Schumann, chief economist at the German chambers for Industry and Commerce (DIHK).

He told DW that it was especially the construction industry which had been unable to boost activity due to the heavy rainfall. The sector was particularly hard hit, as it was already facing a huge backlog of orders stemming from the long and harsh winter in Germany.
As water levels rise in Germany's flood zones, the situation is growing more dramatic. It has been just over a decade since the country's last flood crisis, but little has been learned from that, critics say.

Members of the Federal Agency of Technical Relief (THW) load sandbags in Hirschfeld near Leipzig
REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch
In 2002, torrential rainfall had led the Elbe River and its tributaries to burst their banks. Unprecedented water levels were recorded particularly in eastern Germany. The first major flood of the new century put the issue of flood prevention at the top of the political and social agenda.

But Andreas Schumann, a water supply expert at Germany's Ruhr University, says the memory of the 2002 catastrophe has already faded, adding, "We have an incredible deficit when it comes to awareness about flooding."

That is a problem in places where people have moved closer to the rivers from generation to generation, which is true in many parts of Germany.

Flooded streets near Chemnitz in the state of Saxony
Photo: Arvid Müller/dpa
"We must keep flooding areas free of development," Schumann stresses, but notes that this principle is often abandoned due to people's tendency to underestimate the risks of severe flooding.

The water expert adds that many feel a false sense of security due to the preventative technical measures undertaken, like higher and more stable dams and levies.
No perfect protection
Flooded streets near Chemnitz in the state of Saxony
Saxony was among the German states especially hard hit by the 2002 flooding. When asked how Saxony responded in the years afterward, state parliamentarian and environmental expert Andreas Heinz first said that much money was invested in technological measures like improved dams or larger reservoirs intended to absorb water in emergency situations.

A dike near the Oder River
Photo: Patrick Pleul dpa/lbnAndreas Schumann confesses that such measures represent a step forward. "There, the weak spots were recognized and improved," he said, but added, "There is no such thing as absolute flood protection and technological flood prevention measures must always include considerations of what happens when they fail."

Winfried Lücking, an expert on flood protection with the German environmental group BUND, sees things differently. He says there has not been enough consideration of how the dangers of flooding could be better controlled. At a national conference on river issues in 2002, the federal government urged people to give the bodies of water more space. The point in doing so is reducing water levels by allowing more room for the water to flow, including into flood plains with dikes positioned somewhat further away from riverbanks than they often are currently.

"Regrettably, little has been done," Lücking says. On the Elbe, just a handful of dikes were put in place - and partly due only to heavy pressure and involvement from environmental groups.

Creating adequate dikes, however, represents a mammoth project that cannot be completed quickly. For generations, people have pushed the dikes closer and closer to the rivers themselves as areas near their banks have been developed more heavily. Lücking notes this process cannot simply be reversed within a decade, particularly in light of the complicated planning involved.

'Each event is different'

Undertaking flood prevention measures collides with a number of other interests. Landowners do not want to give up their fields, homeowners are unwilling to part with their residences and communities fear limitations to their development potential. As such, resistance runs high when it comes to allowing more space for rivers to spill over their banks.

"Everyone says, you're welcome to do that, just not near us," explains Winfried Lücking.
READ MORE AT DW

German city copes after worst flood in 500 years

Prague Zoo evacuated and Charles Bridge closed as river waters rise


The Associated Press>

Posted: Jun 4, 2013 8:30 AM ET 

Last Updated: Jun 4, 2013 10:50 PM ET


Germany dispatched thousands of soldiers Tuesday to help cities and towns cope with flooding from the rain-soaked Danube and other southern rivers — reinforcements that came a day after the Bavarian city of Passau saw its worst flooding since 1501.
The death toll rose to at least 10, including seven in the neighboring Czech Republic, where a man was found dead in the water in eastern Bohemia. Another nine people have been reported missing in the floods that have also swept through Austria and Switzerland.
Chancellor Angela Merkel toured flooded German regions, pledging €100 million ($135 million Cdn) in immediate federal help and holding out the possibility for more. She told reporters in Passau, a city of 50,000 on the Austrian border, that the damage looked even worse than during the massive flooding that hit central Europe in 2002.
Some 5,000 German soldiers were called in as well as more than 2,000 federal disaster workers and 700 federal police to sandbag areas in danger of flooding and provide other assistance. Water levels were still rising in major rivers such as the Danube and Elbe as well as tributaries.
In the Czech Republic, authorities evacuated animals from the Prague zoo and closed a major bridge in the capital on Tuesday.
The rain in Prague has halted but the Vltava River that runs through the city and flows into the Elbe was still raging, with currents and water levels far exceeding the norm. The famous Charles Bridge was closed as a precaution.


Katerina Sulova / Zuma Press
Prague, Czech Republic - A Humboldt penguin watches flood waters rise from inside its enclosure at the Prague Zoo, as the swollen Vltava river continues to rise.
passau, germanyOn the outskirts of Prague, a major Staropramen beer brewery on the river bank was closed as a protective measure — as were several major chemical factories. One of them — Spolana — released dangerous toxic chemicals into the Elbe during the devastating floods of 2002.
Authorities said the level of the Vltava in Prague has now begun to drop but excess water was expected to soon hit the Elba river, into which it flows downstream.
This year's spike in water levels has been far less than in 2002 so far, but still forced the Prague Zoo to evacuate animals after the lower side of the park was submerged and will once again need major reconstruction.

Passau, a city built around the intersection of the Danube, the Inn and the Ilz rivers, has been one of the worst hit by the flooding in central Europe.
After hitting the highest level in more than 500 years in Passau on Monday, the floodwaters there had dropped by an estimated 2.5 metres Tuesday but cities downstream like Regensburg were bracing for the water's arrival.
READ MORE AT CBC.CA



Vit Simanek / AP
The Prague Zoo flooded by the swollen river Vltava photographed in this Tuesday June 4 aerial view.
Heavy rainfalls caused flooding in in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and the Czech Republic
Flooding in Czech Republic, Germany, Austria

03/06 04:26 CET


The month of June normally heralds the official arrival of summer, but parts of central Europe find themselves struggling with floods.
In the historic centre of Prague, the mayor has warned residents may have to be evacuated from their homes if the River Vitava gets any higher. 300 soldiers are helping to build temporary barriers and pile sandbags around buildings. Another 2000 are on standby.
The Prime Minister has declared a state of emergency for most of the nation. At least two people have died and several others are missing.
Patients have already been evacuated from a hospital under threat from the rising water. Animals have also been rehoused from the city zoo.


Southern and Eastern Germany have also been affected. Three rivers meet here at the city of Passau. Some have resorted to using boats to get around the streets.
And in Austria, torrential rain has caused widespread flooding and landslides, forcing hundreds of people to leave their homes.
Train lines have been closed in affected areas.
SOURCE: EURONEWS.COM

Barbara Gindl / EPA
Firefighters begin clean up efforts after water flooded streets and houses in Huettau, Salzburg, Austria, on.June 4. Flooding since June 1 has so far claimed at least nine lives and led to mass evacuations. Several others have been reported missing as a result of the floods, which cover an area stretching from southern Germany, through to Poland, Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Austria.

Saturday, April 20, 2013

Germany In Talks To Buy Weaponized Drones From Israel


Germany 'may buy weaponised drones from Israel'
A Heron TP surveillance drone at Israel's Tel Nof Air Force base in 2010. Germany is in talks with Israel to buy weaponised drones for its military that are seen as more technologically advanced than US ones, the weekly Der Spiegel says.
A Heron TP surveillance drone at Israel's Tel Nof Air Force base in 2010. Germany is in talks with Israel to buy weaponised drones for its military that are seen as more technologically advanced than US ones, the weekly Der Spiegel says.
AFP - Germany is in talks with Israel to buy weaponised drones for its military that are seen as more technologically advanced than US ones, the weekly Der Spiegel reported.
The news magazine's Monday edition said the German defence ministry had already held two meetings with Israeli military officials, in November 2012 and February 2013, on the proposed purchase.
The chief of Germany's air force, Lieutenant General Karl Muellner, was said to have recently gone to Israel to attend a presentation of Israel's Heron TP drone, Der Spiegel said.
Berlin was believed to favour the Heron over the US-made Predator drones because it was seen as more cutting-edge, the magazine said.
Germany's defence minister, Thomas de Maiziere, in February called for combat drones to be incorporated into the air force, saying their lack created a disadvantage.
At the time, he made no mention about which drones Germany would be interested in.
But Germany had expressed an interest in jointly developing drone technology with France, to avoid becoming dependent on US or Israeli drones.
The issue of drones has generated an ethical debate in Germany, which does not use unmanned aircraft to fight battles but only for surveillance and reconnaissance missions in places such as Afghanistan.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Greece & It's Effect On the EURO. RIOTS. Anti-Merkel PROTESTS. LIVE STREAMING.

AS YOU LOOK AT WHAT I HAVE POSTED BELOW REGARDING GREECE, THE TOP IS THE LATEST NEWS.  AS YOU READ DOWN, IT RELATES TO WHAT IS GOING ON ABOVE BUT IS NEWS POSTED EARLIER.  AT THE BOTTOM, YOU WILL FIND STREAMING COVERAGE OF THE RIOTS IN GREECE.

Athens police fire tear gas in crackdown clashes at anti-Merkel protest (PHOTOS, VIDEO)





Published on Oct 8, 2012 by 
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, is set to arrive in Greece on Tuesday, where she will hold talks with conservative prime minister Antonis Samaras. A heavy security has been put in place for the German chancellor's six-hour visit, the first since the economic crisis made landfall in Greece in 2010, amid planned new anti-austerity protests. But victims of the huge spending cuts forced on Greece by the EU, IMF and European Central Bank also want a word with her. Al Jazeera's Barnaby Phillips reports from the Greek capital, Athens.



Forex Flash: ESM launched, attention turned to Greece – UBS

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The monthly meeting of Eurozone finance ministers ended with little fanfare. As expected, Europe's new bailout facility - the ESM - was formally launched. According to Gareth Berry, a Research Analyst at UBS, "Eventually the ESM will take over from the EFSF, however both facilities are scheduled to run in tandem for at least a year, providing a combined firepower of €700B."

In addition, the headlines on Greece sounded more accommodating than usual. Greece's finance minister emerged from the meeting noting that an extension to Greece's adjustment program is now on the table, although no agreement has yet been reached on this point. Even Eurogroup Chair Juncker conceded that he was impressed by the performance of the new Greek government and its willingness to push through reforms.

"Germany's Chancellor Merkel is due to meet Greece's Prime Minister Samaras in Athens to today, however we do not expect any announcement on whether Greece will receive its next aid tranche until the troika has finished its quarterly review." Berry adds. Policymakers are likely to command the headlines again today with an appearance by ECB President Draghi before an EU parliamentary committee. Bank of England Governor King is also due to reflect on the subject of inflation targeting during his speech this evening.

Read more: http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-10/forex-flash-esm-launched-attention-turned-to-greece-ubs.aspx?storyid=180071#ixzz28oQtQjrl



Germany's Merkel arrives to protests in Greece

10:14AM EST October 9. 2012 - ATHENS -- Thousands of protesters greeted German Chancellor
Angela Merkel here Tuesday when she arrived to have a face-to-face meeting with Greece's president, who must cut the public payroll to qualify for European aid money and avoid national bankruptcy.
Tens of thousands of demonstrators marched on Syntagma square in spite of a
ban on gathering there and tried to push through barricades to voice anger at Merkel, whom they accuse of unfairly forcing Greece to slash government jobs and benefits to keep the European Union intact.
Some demonstrators threw stones and bottles. Police fired tear gas to hold them back, but violent flare-ups were isolated.
Merkel, who arrived for a five-hour visit at the invitation of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, has made Germany one of the biggest contributors of bailout money to Greece. But she and other European leaders have demanded Greece cut back on overspending to receive the next bailout loan scheduled for next month.
"She knows she's not welcome here," said protester Leta Karayanni, 28. "I think Merkel came here (for the typical diplomatic visit) but also to show her power. We have nothing against the Germans (but) she's just another unethical politician like the Greek politicians."
More than 7,000 police patrolled the streets of the capital; large areas of the city were shut off to the public and gatherings were banned outside the German Embassy.

ECOFIN: EU's Rehn Says Greece Can Expect Decision In November at the Latest

By Matina Stevis

LUXEMBOURG--A decision on a much-needed 31.5 billion euro ($40.7 billion) bailout tranche for Greece, withheld since June, can be expected in November at the latest, European Union Economics Chief Olli Rehn said Tuesday.
A two-year extension to Greece's fiscal targets -- reaching a 4.5% gross domestic product primary surplus -- will "have to be considered" by euro-zone finance ministers. He said that the European Commission had "a certain view" on this but he preferred to make it public when he had to make a formal recommendation to the euro-zone finance ministers' group. EU officials have said that the European Commission is in favor of such an extension. But there is no agreement among Greece's creditors over how the financing gap that such an extension would create could be filled.
With Greece saying it runs out of cash sometime in November, it had previously been hoped that the sizeable loan slice, earmarked for bank recapitalization and other payments, would come in October. But a review of Greece's compliance with its obligations under its program is still underway in Athens. The heads of the team of experts from Greece's troika of creditors --the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- were in Luxembourg Monday to brief euro-zone finance ministers on the Greek situation.
Euro-zone officials described the discussion that followed the presentation as "heated".

Merkel pledges support for Greece in Athens visit

Demonstrators display a banner reading "Frau Merkel, get out"


German Chancellor Angela Merkel has pledged her country's continuing support to Greece, during her first visit to Athens since the eurozone crisis erupted nearly three years ago.
Mrs Merkel said Greece had made good progress in dealing with its vast debt but that it was on a "difficult path".
Thousands of people who blame Germany for forcing painful austerity measures on Greece are protesting in Athens.


Greece Still Taking its Toll on Euro

Ignore Greece at your peril.
Financially, Spain may be a much larger problem for the euro and the euro zone.
But the problems of Greece are becoming even more intransigent and even more of a risk to the survival of the single currency as we know it.
Yes, we have all been here before.
But each time the problems that confront Athens are revisited they appear deeper and even more impossible to resolve without some new ground-breaking effort that its creditors are still resisting.
The International Monetary Fund summed it up with its latest revision of the country’s finances predicting that Greece’s debt will reach more than 180% of GDP next year and will have fallen back only to 150% by the year 2020. This is far beyond the sustainable level of about 120% that the IMF would like to see.
To help reduce the immediate burden, Greece has been seeking  a two-year delay to the austerity targets set by the troika of creditors — the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Union.
However, the proposal has been meeting as much resistance from finance ministers as a suggestion that the country’s creditors accept another haircut on Greek debts. In other words, that they write down some of the debts to keep Greece afloat and ensure the country is able to continue servicing the balance of its debts.
The dilemma for Greece’s creditors is just how far they can afford to ease the country’s bailout terms without signaling to other euro-zone debtors that they too can get away without full compliance and at the same time not pushing Greece too close to the political edge that makes continued membership of the euro impossible.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Poland's Strategy


August 28, 2012

By George Friedman
Polish national strategy pivots around a single, existential issue: how to preserve its national identity and independence. Located on the oft-invaded North European Plain, Poland's existence is heavily susceptible to the moves of major Eurasian powers. Therefore, Polish history has been erratic, with Poland moving from independence -- even regional dominance -- to simply disappearing from the map, surviving only in language and memory before emerging once again.
North European Plain
For some countries, geopolitics is a marginal issue. Win or lose, life goes on. But for Poland, geopolitics is an existential issue; losing begets national catastrophe. Therefore, Poland's national strategy inevitably is designed with an underlying sense of fear and desperation. Nothing in Polish history would indicate that disaster is impossible.
To begin thinking about Poland's strategy, we must consider that in the 17th century, Poland, aligned with Lithuania, was one of the major European powers. It stretched from the Baltic Sea almost to the Black Sea, from western Ukraine into the Germanic regions. By 1795, it had ceased to exist as an independent country, divided among three emerging powers: Prussia, Russia and Austria.

Poland-Lithuania Commonwealth
It did not regain independence until after World War I -- it was created by the Treaty of Versailles (1919) -- after which it had to fight the Soviets for its existence. Poland again was brought under the power of a foreign nation when Germany invaded in 1939. Its statehood was formalized in 1945, but it was dominated by the Soviets until 1989.
Informed by its history, Poland understands that it must retain its independence and avoid foreign occupation -- an issue that transcends all others psychologically and practically. Economic, institutional and cultural issues are important, but the analysis of its position must always return to this root issue.

Poland's Elusive Security

Poland has two strategic problems. The first problem is its geography. The Carpathian Mountains and the Tatra Mountains provide some security to Poland's south. But the lands to the east, west and southwest are flat plains with only rivers that provide limited protection. This plain was the natural line of attack of great powers, including Napoleonic France and Nazi Germany.
Poland's Strategy
During the 17th century, the Germans were fragmented in the Holy Roman Empire, while Russia was still emerging as a coherent power. The North European Plain was an opportunity for Poland. Poland could establish itself on the plain. It could protect itself against a challenge from any direction. But Poland becomes extremely difficult to defend when multiple powers converge from different directions. If Poland is facing three adversaries, as it did in the late 18th century with Prussia, Russia and Austria, it is in an impossible position.
For Poland, the existence of a powerful Germany and Russia poses an existential problem, the ideal solution to which is to become a buffer that Berlin and Moscow respect. A secondary solution is an alliance with one for protection. The latter solution is extremely difficult because dependence on Russia or Germany invites the possibility of absorption or occupation. Poland's third solution is to find an outside power to guarantee its interests.
This is what Poland did in the 1930s with Britain and France. This strategy's shortcomings are obvious. First, it may not be in the interests of the security guarantor to come to Poland's assistance. Second, it may not be possible at the time of danger for them to help Poland. The value of a third-party guarantee is only in deterring attack and, failing that, in the willingness and ability to honor the commitment.
Since 1991, Poland has sought a unique solution that was not available previously: membership in multilateral organizations such as the European Union and NATO. Such memberships are meant to provide protection outside the bilateral system. Most important, these memberships bring Germany and Poland into the same political entity. Ostensibly, they guarantee Polish security and remove the potential threat of Germany.
This solution was quite effective while Russia was weak and inwardly focused. But Polish history teaches that Russian dynamics change periodically and that Poland cannot assume Russia will remain weak or benign in perpetuity. Like all nations, Poland must base its strategy on the worst-case scenario.
The solution also is problematic in that it assumes NATO and the European Union are reliable institutions. Should Russia become aggressive, NATO's ability to field a force to resist Russia would depend less on the Europeans than on the Americans. The heart of the Cold War was a struggle of influence across the North European Plain, and it involved 40 years of risk and expense. Whether the Americans are prepared to do this again is not something Poland can count on, at least in the context of NATO.
Moreover, the European Union is not a military organization; it is an economic free trade zone. As such, it has some real value to Poland in the area of economic development. That isn't trivial. But the extent to which it contains Germany is now questionable. The European Union is extremely stressed, and its future is unclear. There are scenarios under which Germany, not wanting to shoulder the cost of maintaining the European Union, may loosen its ties with the bloc and move closer to the Russians. The emergence of a Germany not intimately tied to a multinational European entity but with increasing economic ties with Russia is Poland's worst-case scenario.
Obviously, close ties with NATO and the European Union are Poland's first strategic solution, but the viability of NATO as a military force is less than clear and the future of the European Union is clouded. This is at the heart of Poland's strategic problem. When it was independent in the 20th century, Poland sought multilateral alliances to protect itself from Russia and Germany. Among these alliances was the Intermarium, an interwar concept promoted by Polish Gen. Jozef Pilsudski that called for an alignment comprising Central European countries from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea that together could resist Germany and Russia. The Intermarium concept never took hold, and none of these multilateral alliances has proved sufficient to address Polish concerns.

A Matter of Time

Poland has three strategies available to it. The first is to do everything it can to keep NATO and the European Union viable and Germany contained within them. Poland doesn't have the power to ensure this. The second is to create a relationship with Germany or Russia that guarantees its interests. Obviously, the ability to maintain those relationships is limited. The third strategy is to find an outside power prepared to guarantee its interests.
That power is currently the United States. But the United States, after the experiences in the Islamic world, is moving toward a more distant, balance-of-power approach to the world. This does not mean the United States is indifferent to what happens in northern Europe. The growth of Russian power and potential Russian expansionism that would upset the European balance of power obviously would not be in Washington's interest. But as the United States matures as a global power, it will allow the regional balance of power to stabilize naturally rather than intervene if the threat appears manageable.
In the 1930s, Poland's strategy was to find a guarantor as a first resort. It assumed correctly that its own military capability was insufficient to protect itself from the Germans or the Soviets, and certainly insufficient to protect itself from both. Therefore, it assumed that it would succumb to these powers without a security guarantor. Under these circumstances, no matter how much it increased its military power, Poland could not survive by itself.
The Polish analysis of the situation was not incorrect, but it missed an essential component of intervention: time. Whether an intervention on Poland's behalf consisted of an attack in the west or a direct intervention in Poland, the act of mounting such an intervention would take more time than the Polish army was able to buy in 1939.
This points to two aspects of any Polish relationship to the United States. On one hand, the collapse of Poland as Russia resurges would deprive the United States of a critical bulwark against Moscow on the North European Plain. On the other hand, intervention is inconceivable without time. The Polish military's ability to deter or delay a Russian attack sufficiently to give the United States -- and whatever European allies might have the resources and intent to join the coalition -- time to evaluate the situation, plan a response and then respond must be the key element of Polish strategy.
Poland may not be able to defend itself in perpetuity. It needs guarantors whose interests align with its own. But even if it has such guarantors, the historical experience of Poland is that it must, on its own, conduct a delaying operation of at least several months to buy time for intervention. A joint Russo-German attack, of course, simply cannot be survived, and such multifront attacks are not exceptional in Polish history. That cannot be dealt with. A single-front attack could be, but it will fall on Poland to mount it.
This is a question of economics and national will. The economic situation in Poland has improved dramatically over recent years, but building an effective force takes time and money. The Poles have time, since the Russian threat at this point is more theoretical than real, and their economy is sufficiently robust to support a significant capability.
The primary issue is national will. In the 18th century, the fall of Polish power had as much to do with internal disunity among the Polish nobility as it had to do with a multifront threat. In the interwar period, there was will to resist, but it did not always include the will to absorb the costs of defense, preferring to believe that the situation was not as dire as it was becoming. Today, the will to believe in the European Union and in NATO, rather than to recognize that nations ultimately must guarantee their own national security, is an issue for Poland to settle.
Read the rest: Poland's Strategy | Stratfor