Essenially, the bunch of data and other hubub down below means that Obama and Romney are actually neck and neck in this race. See if you can make out the information below.
General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Heartland Monitor Poll:
Obama Leads 50 Percent to 43 Percent
|Poll||Date||Sample||MoE||Obama (D)||Romney (R)||Spread|
|National Journal||9/15 - 9/19||1055 LV||3.0||50||43||Obama +7|
HuffPost Model Estimate
- Barack Obama 48.3%
- Mitt Romney 44.8%
- source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com
|Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney|
|Based on registered voters|
09/1-7/2012 49 45
09/2-8/2012 49 44
09/3-9/2012 49 44
09/4-10/2012 50 44
09/5-11/2012 50 43
09/6-12/2012 50 44
09/7-13/2012 49 44
09/8-14/2012 49 45
09/9-15/2012 48 45
09/10-16/2012 48 45
09/11-17/2012 47 46
09/12-18/2012 47 46
09/13-19/2012 47 47
09/14-20/2012 47 47
|Poll||Date||Sample||MoE||Obama (D)||Romney (R)||Spread|
|9/14 - 9/20||3050 RV||47||47||Tie|
|Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun||9/13 - 9/16||1344 LV||2.7||48||45||Obama +3|
NATIONAL: OBAMA GAINS OVER ROMNEY
Incumbent has edge on handling foreign policy in wake of Middle East violence
Pres. Barack Obama has opened a slight lead over Gov. Mitt Romney in the latest Monmouth
University Poll of American voters. In a week when the news cycle has been dominated by violence
against Americans overseas, voters say that the Democratic incumbent has done a better job than the
Republican challenger responding to the situation and is better able to handle the nation’s foreign policy
Currently, Obama holds a 7 point lead over Romney (48% to 41%) among all registered voters
and a 3 point lead (48% to 45%) among likely voters. That compares to slimmer margins of 4 points and
one point, respectively, in mid-August before both parties’ nominating conventions.
Fully 9-in-10 likely voters have heard about the recent violence and protests at U.S. embassies in
Africa and the Middle East, including 61% who have heard a lot about this and 29% who have heard a
little. When asked about the two presidential contenders’ public response to the situation, 39% of likely
voters approve of how Obama has handled the situation to 27% who disapprove, with the remainder being
unaware of the president’s response. Opinion is more divided on how Mitt Romney has dealt with the
situation – just 25% of likely voters approve of the GOP nominee’s response to 29% who disapprove.
The poll also found that a majority (51%) of likely voters trust Obama more than Romney (42%) to
handle the nation’s foreign policy.
“If the past week was Mitt Romney’s opportunity to show how he would handle a foreign crisis,
the GOP nominee did not put his best foot forward as far as voters are concerned,” said Patrick Murray,
director of the New Jersey-based Monmouth University Polling Institute.
While foreign affairs have driven the recent campaign debate, the Monmouth University Poll also
found that Obama has gained an advantage on domestic issues, particularly Social Security and Medicare.
Half (50%) of likely voters now trust Obama to handle this issue compared to 42% who prefer Romney.
Just one month ago, the two candidates were virtually tied among likely voters on this issue – 46% for
Obama to 43% for Romney.
“These results suggest that Democratic attacks on the Ryan budget plan, and by association Mitt
Romney, are gaining a small toehold among voters,” said Murray.
The poll also found Obama with a very slight edge on handling the economy and jobs. Nearly
half (48%) of likely voters trust the incumbent on this issue compared to 45% who prefer Romney. One
month ago this issue was tied at 45% for each candidate.
One area where the electorate remains evenly divided is the federal budget deficit and debt. The
same number of likely voters trust Obama (47%) as Romney (47%) on this issue. One month ago, Gov.
Romney had a slight 46% to 44% edge on this issue.
The Monmouth University Poll also asked registered voters about prospects for economic
recovery regardless of the victor this November. About 3-in-10 (31%) say that it is very likely that the
economy can actually be turned around in the next few years compared to 19% who say it is not likely.
Another 43% say it is somewhat likely the economy can be turned around. Both Democrats (35%) and
Republicans (34%) are more optimistic than independents (27%) about the economy’s eventual recovery.
To the extent that this year’s election is a referendum on the economy, 24% of registered voters
say their family is better off now than when the economy hit bottom in early 2009 compared to 28% who
are worse off. Nearly half (47%) say their family’s financial situation is unchanged. Obama voters
(40%) are the most likely to say they are now better off, while Romney voters (51%) are the most likely
to say they are now worse off. Undecided voters, though, are the most likely to say their family’s
financial situation is about the same (60%). Among the remainder, 23% of undecided voters say they are
now worse off and 12% say they are better off.
There has been little change in the personal ratings of the candidates over the past month. For the
Democratic ticket, Barack Obama is viewed favorably by 46% of likely voters and unfavorably by 43%.
Vice President Joe Biden gets a 34% favorable to 39% unfavorable rating. For the GOP team, Mitt
Romney has a 41% favorable to 40% unfavorable rating among likely voters and Congressman Paul Ryan
earns a 38% favorable to 33% unfavorable rating.
The latest Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with 1,571 registered voters in
the United States from September 13 to 16, 2012. This sample has a margin of error of + 2.5 percent.
The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.
HART/McINTURFF Study #121235
September 2012 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Interviews: 900 Registered Voters, including 270 cell phone only respondents
Date: September 12-16, 2012
|NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl||9/12 - 9/16||736 LV||3.6||50||45||Obama +5|
Democrats Narrow Engagement Gap
Obama Ahead with Stronger Support, Better Image
and Lead on Most Issues
At this stage in the campaign, Barack Obama is
in a strong position compared with past
victorious presidential candidates. With an
eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among
likely voters, Obama holds a bigger September
lead than the last three candidates who went
on to win in November, including Obama four
years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill
Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with
a larger advantage.
Obama’s September Advantage
Likely voters % %
Sept 2012 51 Obama 43 Romney Obama +8