Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Solar Activity Alert Update!!!!

Solar Activity Alert!!!!!---UPDATE from last night's post

usually reported within 30 minutes of event peak)
  Date    Time    Magnitude  
  08-Mar-2011    1044Z    M5.3  
  08-Mar-2011    0358Z    M1.5  
  08-Mar-2011    0229Z    M1.3  
  07-Mar-2011    2150Z    M1.5  
  07-Mar-2011    2012Z    M3.7  
  07-Mar-2011    1430Z    M1.9  
  07-Mar-2011    0920Z    M1.8  
  07-Mar-2011    0807Z    M1.4  
  07-Mar-2011    0754Z    M1.5  
  07-Mar-2011    0513Z    M1.2  
We are VERY close to an X-Class flare, which is the highest class on the scale.  As you view the magnitudes above, take a look at the increasing magnitudes, with the latest as of this post being M5.3.  That is extremely close to and X-class.  What can potentially happen in an X-class flare?  

"November 4th 2003 saw the most powerful Solar flare eruption (see animation below) on record. This measured a colossal X 28 on the Solar Richter scale. For those unaquainted with the magnitude of Solar Flares it may be difficult to comprehend the extreme force of such an explosion which is the largest ever recorded in the Solar System.

Like earthquake of 25 on the Richter scale.
Although the two scales cannot be satisfactorily compared this explosion if transferred to the earthquake scale would be something like an earthquake of around 15 on the Richter scale. In other words an out of category event the like of which has never been seen or experienced.
Not entirely Earth directed.
Fortunately for our planet most of the debris from the explosion was not entirely Earth directed but a glancing blow from the flare did bring displays of the Northern Lights several days later. However this is nothing to what would have happened if the flare had been targetted directly towards Earth. What is certain is that this particular Solar explosion broke all records and is an event without precedence in living memory"

Congress Worries That Solar Flares Could Spell Disaster

Published June 10, 2010
High-energy electric pulses from the sun could surge to Earth and cripple our electrical grid for years, causing billions in damages, government officials and scientists worry.
The House is so concerned that the Energy and Commerce committee voted unanimously 47 to 0 to approve a bill allocating $100 million to protect the energy grid from this rare but potentially devastating occurrence.
The Grid Reliability and Infrastructure Defense Act, or H.R. 5026, aims "to amend the Federal Power Act to protect the bulk-power system and electric infrastructure critical to the defense of the United States against cybersecurity and other threats and vulnerabilities."
It cites electromagnetic pulses from geomagnetic or solar storms as the big threat to our energy distribution grid, and demands "an order directing the Electric Reliability Organization to submit … reliability standards adequate to protect the bulk-power system from any reasonably foreseeable geomagnetic storm event."
Solar storms occur when sunspots on our star erupt and spew out flumes of charged particles that can damage power systems. The sun's activity typically follows an 11-year cycle, and it looks to be coming out of a slump and gearing up for an active period.
"The sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and in the next few years we expect to see much higher levels of solar activity," said Richard Fisher, head of NASA's Heliophysics Division. "At the same time, our technological society has developed an unprecedented sensitivity to solar storms."
Fisher and other experts met Tuesday at the Space Weather Enterprise Forum to discuss the intersection of these two issues, and ways to protect society from nature's wrath.
A major solar storm could cause 20 times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina, the National Academy of Sciences warned in a 2008 report, "Severe Space Weather Events—Societal and Economic Impacts."
And the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, while pointing out that "these risks are rare, and in some cases have never occurred," is nonetheless very concerned about the reality of geomagnetic events.
It a recently released report, NERC cited recent analysis by Metatech and Storm Analysis Consultants that suggests "the potential extremes of the geomagnetic threat environment may be much greater than previously anticipated. Geomagnetically induced currents on system infrastructure have the potential to result in widespread tripping of key transmission lines and irreversible physical damage to large transformers."
It's the fear of an EMP, specifically a high-altitude pulse caused by a solar event, that has Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) worried.
“It would cost about $100 million to protect the grid from EMP," he said in a speech at the House. "The consequences of inaction are dire. If our grid is destroyed by EMP, the National Academies warn it would cost us between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in damages and take four to 10 years to recover.”
Next week National Geographic Explorer will air a special on the topic, which warns that the risk also comes from terrorists. In "Electronic Armageddon," Explorer asks the viewer to "picture an instantaneous deathblow to the vital engines that power our society -- delivered by a weapon specifically designed NOT to kill humans, but to kill electronics."
While predicting the odds of a nuclear HEMP attack from terrorist groups are less certain, most experts agree that another source of an EMP, the sun, is imminent,” the show warns.

HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar Cycle 24 is heating up. No fewer than three sunspots (1164, 1165, and 1166) are crackling with M-class solar flares, and each of them has a delta-class magnetic field capable of producing even more powerful X-flares. Scroll past the space shuttle for information about a CME now heading our way.

Class M Flare = 75% chance in 0-24 hours and 50% chance in 24-48 hours

INCOMING CME: The magnetic canopy of sunspot 1166 erupted on March 7th around 1400 UT, producing an M2-class solar flare and a bright coronal mass ejection (CME)....The CME was not squarely directed at Earth. Nevertheless, the cloud will probably deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on March 9th or 10th, possibly sparking polar geomagnetic storms. 

For more information, stay tuned here or see our number one source,

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